Tue, Dec 20, 2016·American Airlines Center, Dallas
St. Louis Blues 3, Dallas Stars 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 17 | 19 | 05 | 11 | 322 |
| DAL | 114 | 114 | 09 | 01 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:04DALPatrick EavesPPAssists: Jason Spezza, John Klingberg · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 11:15STLJaden SchwartzAssists: Paul Stastny, Dmitrij Jaskin · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 18:36DALJason SpezzaAssists: Jiri Hudler, Esa Lindell · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–2
- P2 19:29STLPatrik BerglundAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Robby Fabbri · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–2
- OT 1:55STLDavid PerronGWGAssists: Jaden Schwartz · Wrap-around, 0.15 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:48STLVladimir Tarasenko: High sticking2 min
- P1 4:48STLVladimir Tarasenko: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:50STLDmitrij Jaskin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 12:22DALJamie Benn: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 13:06DALAntoine Roussel: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:06STLDavid Perron: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:06STLJoel Edmundson: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:06DALCurtis McKenzie: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Shore won the faceoff against Berglund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Schwartz – Jaskin10:33
xG 0.62–0.15 (81%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Steen – Lehtera – Tarasenko7:23
xG 0.49–0.05 (91%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Berglund – Perron – Schwartz4:28
xG 0.04–0.36 (10%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves6:23
xG 0.01–0.45 (2%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Shattenkirk – Edmundson5:34
xG 0.49–0.52 (48%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Hunt9:50
xG 0.08–0.24 (24%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Parayko21:22
xG 0.58–0.86 (40%)attempts 21–23goals 2–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestCracknell – McKenzie – Shore10:23
xG 0.52–0.07 (88%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Spezza – Hudler – Korpikoski9:57
xG 0.44–0.13 (78%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
- Eaves – Benn – Seguin12:31
xG 0.49–0.38 (56%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Roussel – Ritchie – Faksa13:15
xG 0.58–0.53 (52%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Johns15:10
xG 0.74–0.08 (90%)attempts 24–7goals 0–0
- Oduya – Benn15:19
xG 0.42–0.27 (61%)attempts 19–15goals 0–1
- Klingberg – Lindell17:31
xG 0.58–0.92 (39%)attempts 15–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).