Wed, Dec 21, 2016·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Washington Capitals 2, Philadelphia Flyers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 114 | 110 | 010 | 04 | 1 | 238 |
| PHI | 07 | 213 | 014 | 04 | 2 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:24WSHAndre BurakovskyAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Lars Eller · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 4:25PHIMichael RafflAssists: Radko Gudas, Jakub Voracek · Wrap-around, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 9:53WSHLars EllerAssists: John Carlson, Andre Burakovsky · Snap, 0.20 xG2–1
- P2 19:39PHIClaude GirouxUnassisted · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. PHI Shayne Gostisbehere stopped
- 2. WSH T.J. Oshie scored
- 3. PHI Claude Giroux stopped
- 4. WSH Evgeny Kuznetsov stopped
- 5. PHI Jakub Voracek scored
- 6. WSH Nicklas Backstrom stopped
- 7. PHI Wayne Simmonds scored
- 8. WSH Justin Williams stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:16WSHDaniel Winnik: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:36WSHLars Eller: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:58PHIShayne Gostisbehere: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:58WSHJustin Williams: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:12PHIRadko Gudas: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuznetsov won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWinnik – Beagle – Wilson8:49
xG 0.84–0.30 (74%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Eller – Burakovsky – Vrana8:38
xG 0.75–0.26 (74%)attempts 18–4goals 2–0
- Williams – Johansson – Kuznetsov3:24
xG 0.11–0.07 (62%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Williams – Ovechkin – Kuznetsov8:33
xG 0.39–0.45 (46%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Carlson14:28
xG 1.20–0.57 (68%)attempts 14–18goals 1–1
- Orpik – Schmidt12:46
xG 0.64–0.28 (70%)attempts 21–8goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Orlov19:39
xG 0.48–0.84 (36%)attempts 17–21goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVandeVelde – Bellemare – Lyubimov12:03
xG 0.52–0.17 (75%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Schenn – Konecny9:32
xG 0.20–0.49 (29%)attempts 10–20goals 0–1
- Weise – Cousins – Leier7:34
xG 0.12–0.60 (17%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Raffl13:08
xG 0.41–0.98 (30%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestManning – Gudas2:24
xG 0.12–0.04 (74%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Gudas15:32
xG 0.27–0.36 (43%)attempts 14–15goals 1–1
- MacDonald – Provorov16:49
xG 0.65–0.92 (42%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).