Thu, Dec 22, 2016·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 110 | 06 | 010 | 126 |
| CBJ | 16 | 212 | 410 | 728 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:39PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Ian Cole, Conor Sheary · Snap, 0.38 xG1–0
- P1 13:01CBJCam AtkinsonPPAssists: Nick Foligno, Alexander Wennberg · Snap, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 10:15CBJWilliam KarlssonGWGAssists: Sam Gagner, Josh Anderson · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 12:20CBJScott HartnellUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 2:44CBJScott HartnellAssists: Sam Gagner, Jack Johnson · Slap, 0.24 xG1–4
- P3 3:01CBJBrandon SaadAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Nick Foligno · Snap, 0.01 xG1–5
- P3 3:35CBJBoone JennerAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–6
- P3 6:24CBJScott HartnellAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Brandon Saad · Snap, 0.13 xG1–7
Penalties (12)
- P1 10:19PITIan Cole: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 2:44CBJScott Hartnell: Elbowing2 min
- P2 5:45PITSteve Oleksy: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:45CBJBoone Jenner: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:04CBJScott Hartnell: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 13:04PITSteve Oleksy: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:21PITSteve Oleksy: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:13PITConor Sheary: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:23CBJLukas Sedlak: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:51CBJLukas Sedlak: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:57CBJMatt Calvert: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:57PITCarl Hagelin: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Sheary10:21
xG 0.99–0.68 (59%)attempts 10–13goals 1–2
- Kunitz – Malkin – Hornqvist11:21
xG 0.17–0.34 (33%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Cullen – Fehr – Wilson5:50
xG 0.00–0.26 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Kessel – Bonino – Hagelin8:15
xG 0.37–0.79 (32%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Schultz15:18
xG 1.12–0.72 (61%)attempts 13–17goals 1–2
- Oleksy – Maatta5:43
xG 0.20–0.03 (88%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Cole – Oleksy3:05
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Gagner – Sedlak6:03
xG 0.74–0.01 (99%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Dubinsky – Calvert – Atkinson2:20
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Foligno – Saad – Wennberg11:27
xG 0.32–0.36 (47%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Calvert – Karlsson – Anderson8:30
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Nutivaara13:13
xG 1.10–0.18 (86%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Johnson – Savard14:48
xG 1.00–0.11 (90%)attempts 13–10goals 3–0
- Jones – Werenski14:00
xG 0.12–1.26 (9%)attempts 7–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).