Thu, Dec 22, 2016·Centre Bell, Montreal
Minnesota Wild 4, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 013 | 28 | 26 | 427 |
| MTL | 011 | 215 | 08 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:01MTLMax PaciorettySHAssists: Phillip Danault, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 7:09MINJordan SchroederUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 10:35MTLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Brian Flynn, Tomas Plekanec · Backhand, 0.24 xG1–2
- P2 15:43MINJared SpurgeonAssists: Jason Zucker, Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 3:08MINEric StaalSHGWGAssists: Mikael Granlund, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 19:37MINJason ZuckerENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.70 xG4–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:14MTLBrian Flynn: Holding2 min
- P1 13:10MINChristian Folin: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:26MTLBrendan Gallagher: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:35MTLMax Pacioretty: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:29MINCharlie Coyle: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:04MINJared Spurgeon: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:48MTLBrendan Gallagher: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:27MINChris Stewart: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Zucker – Granlund11:08
xG 0.96–0.46 (68%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Staal – Coyle – Niederreiter11:24
xG 0.27–0.16 (63%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Pominville – Stewart – Graovac8:19
xG 0.20–0.10 (67%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Schroeder – Cannone – Gabriel2:15
xG 0.09–0.36 (20%)attempts 3–2goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon16:48
xG 1.37–0.60 (69%)attempts 19–20goals 1–0
- Suter – Dumba2:20
xG 0.05–0.11 (30%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Brodin – Dumba9:45
xG 0.07–0.45 (13%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Flynn – Lehkonen10:14
xG 0.77–0.05 (94%)attempts 21–5goals 1–0
- Terry – McCarron – Carr5:50
xG 0.21–0.03 (89%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Byron – Gallagher6:08
xG 0.22–0.09 (70%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Radulov – Pacioretty – Danault11:30
xG 0.14–1.28 (10%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Barberio16:02
xG 0.84–0.10 (89%)attempts 29–9goals 0–0
- Redmond – Hanley5:49
xG 0.09–0.26 (26%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
- Weber – Beaulieu16:28
xG 0.54–1.19 (31%)attempts 17–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).