Thu, Dec 22, 2016·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Los Angeles Kings 4, Nashville Predators 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 16 | 014 | 36 | 426 |
| NSH | 012 | 09 | 07 | 028 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:33LAKNicholas ShoreGWGAssists: Jordan Nolan · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–0
- P3 4:25LAKNic DowdAssists: Trevor Lewis, Tanner Pearson · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P3 4:34LAKJeff CarterAssists: Alec Martinez · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–0
- P3 11:39LAKDevin SetoguchiAssists: Anze Kopitar, Dustin Brown · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:51NSHMatt Irwin: Interference2 min
- P1 11:09LAKTanner Pearson: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 2:48NSHAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:48LAKAndy Andreoff: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:09NSHRoman Josi: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 15:17LAKJordan Nolan: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:52LAKNicholas Shore: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dowd won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Setoguchi – Kopitar10:10
xG 0.56–0.39 (59%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Lewis – Dowd – Pearson10:37
xG 0.46–0.34 (58%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Nolan – Andreoff – Shore9:14
xG 0.41–0.49 (45%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Gaborik – Carter – King10:47
xG 0.25–0.37 (40%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Forbort17:43
xG 0.75–0.33 (70%)attempts 19–12goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Gravel10:39
xG 0.14–0.20 (41%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Martinez15:49
xG 0.80–0.91 (47%)attempts 18–12goals 4–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Forsberg – Fiala11:07
xG 1.05–0.34 (76%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Watson – Sissons6:36
xG 0.34–0.42 (44%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Fisher – Neal – Arvidsson8:01
xG 0.02–0.15 (13%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Wilson – Smith9:02
xG 0.11–0.53 (17%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Irwin16:59
xG 0.76–0.49 (61%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
- Josi – Irwin2:53
xG 0.09–0.02 (84%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Josi – Ellis16:54
xG 0.61–0.55 (53%)attempts 13–16goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).