Thu, Dec 22, 2016·Pepsi Center, Denver
Toronto Maple Leafs 6, Colorado Avalanche 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 313 | 210 | 18 | 631 |
| COL | 013 | 015 | 010 | 038 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:13TORAuston MatthewsGWGAssists: Nikita Zaitsev · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 11:49TORConnor BrownPPAssists: William Nylander, Jake Gardiner · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P1 18:20TORRoman PolakAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Mitch Marner · Slap, 0.02 xG3–0
- P2 6:05TORJames van RiemsdykUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–0
- P2 8:42TORFrederik GauthierAssists: Mitch Marner, Jake Gardiner · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–0
- P3 13:00TORNazem KadriPPAssists: Mitch Marner, Nikita Zaitsev · Wrist, 0.40 xG6–0
Penalties (17)
- P1 7:48TORNazem Kadri: Holding2 min
- P1 8:58TORRoman Polak: Interference2 min
- P1 11:05COLRene Bourque: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:12COLCody McLeod: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:46COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:46TORMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:55TORJames van Riemsdyk: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:41TORMorgan Rielly: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:13TORMitch Marner: Abuse of officials2 min
- P2 17:45COLCody McLeod: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 2:32COLNikita Zadorov: Boarding2 min
- P3 12:01COLCody Goloubef: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 12:01TORByron Froese: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:01TORMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:01COLNikita Zadorov: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:01COLNikita Zadorov: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:40TORJake Gardiner: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Komarov – Gauthier – Soshnikov2:01
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Martin – Froese – Soshnikov2:35
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Kadri – Marner12:20
xG 0.39–0.39 (50%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Komarov – Gauthier – Nylander4:09
xG 0.05–0.08 (38%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Carrick14:12
xG 0.82–0.24 (77%)attempts 22–11goals 1–0
- Polak – Hunwick10:50
xG 0.18–0.24 (43%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Rielly – Zaitsev12:00
xG 0.26–0.83 (24%)attempts 6–14goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestBourque – Colborne – Duchene9:52
xG 0.62–0.25 (71%)attempts 11–10goals 0–2
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen9:36
xG 0.26–0.17 (61%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Iginla – Comeau – Soderberg9:39
xG 0.27–0.25 (52%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Mitchell – McLeod – Martinsen3:47
xG 0.06–0.14 (29%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Goloubef7:18
xG 0.58–0.12 (83%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Beauchemin – Barrie2:28
xG 0.30–0.12 (72%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Barrie9:43
xG 0.26–0.19 (58%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).