Fri, Dec 23, 2016·Madison Square Garden, New York
Minnesota Wild 7, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 19 | 511 | 11 | 721 |
| NYR | 19 | 214 | 112 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:54NYRChris KreiderAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 9:53MINMikael GranlundAssists: Jason Zucker, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 0:40MINMikko KoivuAssists: Jason Zucker · Slap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 0:58MINNino NiederreiterAssists: Charlie Coyle, Eric Staal · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–1
- P2 2:17NYRRyan McDonaghAssists: Derek Stepan, Chris Kreider · Snap, 0.04 xG3–2
- P2 4:55MINMarco ScandellaAssists: Charlie Coyle, Mikko Koivu · Slap, 0.04 xG4–2
- P2 12:14MINJason ZuckerGWGAssists: Mikael Granlund · Snap, 0.23 xG5–2
- P2 17:24MINMathew DumbaPPAssists: Charlie Coyle, Eric Staal · Snap, 0.24 xG6–2
- P2 19:00NYRDerek StepanAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Kevin Klein · Snap, 0.06 xG6–3
- P3 17:00NYRChris KreiderAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Ryan McDonagh · Tip-in, 0.13 xG6–4
- P3 18:51MINCharlie CoyleENAssists: Nino Niederreiter · Wrist, 0.72 xG7–4
Penalties (3)
- P2 16:18NYRJesper Fast: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:10MINEric Staal: Interference2 min
- P3 14:46MINChris Stewart: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Hayes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Zucker – Granlund13:28
xG 0.68–0.26 (72%)attempts 11–10goals 3–0
- Staal – Coyle – Niederreiter12:51
xG 0.57–0.53 (52%)attempts 11–12goals 2–1
- Schroeder – Cannone – Gabriel7:25
xG 0.04–0.27 (12%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
- Pominville – Stewart – Graovac10:33
xG 0.28–1.07 (21%)attempts 6–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Scandella – Prosser11:53
xG 0.64–0.63 (50%)attempts 12–13goals 2–1
- Suter – Spurgeon21:40
xG 0.72–0.72 (50%)attempts 16–21goals 2–0
- Brodin – Dumba17:01
xG 0.37–0.93 (29%)attempts 9–24goals 1–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Kreider – Zuccarello14:43
xG 0.90–0.44 (67%)attempts 23–10goals 3–1
- Grabner – Hayes – Fast3:37
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Grabner – Hayes – Vesey2:53
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Pirri – Hrivik – Puempel7:33
xG 0.36–0.34 (52%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Clendening4:56
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Staal – Holden5:37
xG 0.19–0.03 (88%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Girardi – McDonagh17:51
xG 0.60–0.43 (58%)attempts 20–11goals 1–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).