Fri, Dec 23, 2016·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
New Jersey Devils 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 02 | 114 | 08 | 124 |
| PIT | 110 | 217 | 112 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:00PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Justin Schultz, Phil Kessel · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 4:13PITEric FehrGWGUnassisted · Tip-in, 0.27 xG0–2
- P2 13:24NJDKyle PalmieriAssists: John Moore, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–2
- P2 19:21PITChad RuhwedelAssists: Chris Kunitz, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 12:05PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Snap, 0.06 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:36NJDAdam Henrique: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:03PITBryan Rust: Interference2 min
- P2 8:23PITIan Cole: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:11NJDPA Parenteau: Interference2 min
- P2 17:53NJDMiles Wood: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:53PITSteve Oleksy: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZajac – Palmieri – Hall7:10
xG 0.62–0.44 (58%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Bennett – Wood – Zacha4:13
xG 0.25–0.16 (61%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Parenteau – Henrique6:59
xG 0.22–0.21 (51%)attempts 10–7goals 0–2
- Palmieri – Bennett – Zacha5:18
xG 0.09–0.08 (52%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Lovejoy – Moore14:59
xG 0.60–0.68 (47%)attempts 12–16goals 1–1
- Helgeson – Merrill15:59
xG 0.42–0.86 (33%)attempts 11–21goals 0–1
- Greene – Severson17:10
xG 0.35–0.89 (28%)attempts 8–16goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Fehr – Wilson7:14
xG 0.64–0.14 (82%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Crosby – Rust – Sheary13:17
xG 0.72–0.50 (59%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Kunitz – Malkin – Hornqvist13:30
xG 0.53–0.50 (52%)attempts 16–8goals 2–0
- Kessel – Bonino – Hagelin12:58
xG 0.36–0.40 (47%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Oleksy13:38
xG 0.77–0.24 (77%)attempts 20–7goals 0–0
- Maatta – Ruhwedel12:23
xG 0.67–0.37 (64%)attempts 14–8goals 3–0
- Schultz – Dumoulin17:17
xG 0.85–0.71 (54%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).