Fri, Dec 23, 2016·United Center, Chicago
Colorado Avalanche 2, Chicago Blackhawks 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 013 | 011 | 19 | 11 | 234 |
| CHI | 012 | 115 | 012 | 00 | 139 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:52CHIJonathan ToewsPPAssists: Artemi Panarin, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.42 xG0–1
- P3 5:42COLMikko RantanenAssists: Tyson Barrie, Nathan MacKinnon · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
- OT 0:25COLNathan MacKinnonGWGAssists: Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:24COLMikhail Grigorenko: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:55COLRene Bourque: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 15:38CHIVinnie Hinostroza: Holding2 min
- P2 19:22COLMikko Rantanen: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:01COLAndreas Martinsen: Interference2 min
- P3 8:54COLJoe Colborne: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:54CHIVinnie Hinostroza: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen12:58
xG 0.47–0.42 (53%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Bourque – Duchene – Grigorenko11:01
xG 0.20–0.18 (52%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Colborne – Martinsen5:15
xG 0.06–0.11 (34%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Iginla – Comeau – Soderberg9:53
xG 0.53–0.70 (43%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Goloubef – Gelinas10:18
xG 0.28–0.26 (52%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Barrie10:05
xG 0.41–0.39 (51%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Barrie2:19
xG 0.07–0.06 (56%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHinostroza – Hartman – Kero4:40
xG 0.39–0.09 (81%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Hinostroza – Motte – Hartman4:58
xG 0.53–0.24 (69%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Toews – Kane – Panarin16:15
xG 0.50–0.36 (58%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
- Tootoo – Desjardins – Kero3:02
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Forsling10:44
xG 0.71–0.42 (63%)attempts 17–15goals 0–0
- Keith – Seabrook2:03
xG 0.14–0.03 (82%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Keith – Hjalmarsson15:41
xG 0.38–0.37 (50%)attempts 16–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).