Fri, Dec 23, 2016·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Edmonton Oilers 2, San Jose Sharks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 05 | 04 | 29 | 00 | 218 |
| SJS | 010 | 113 | 17 | 11 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:31SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Brent Burns, Joe Thornton · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P3 6:17EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Andrej Sekera · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 8:21SJSKevin LabancAssists: Logan Couture, Joe Pavelski · Slap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 8:45EDMPatrick MaroonAssists: Connor McDavid, Eric Gryba · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- OT 3:22SJSKevin LabancGWGAssists: Logan Couture, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–3
Penalties (14)
- P1 6:26SJSMicheal Haley: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 17:05SJSMikkel Boedker: Interference2 min
- P1 19:21SJSBrenden Dillon: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:21EDMMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 19:21EDMMatt Hendricks: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:34EDMZack Kassian: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:34SJSMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:07SJSJustin Braun: Holding2 min
- P2 6:23EDMTaylor Beck: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:22EDMZack Kassian: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:22EDMZack Kassian: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:16SJSJoe Pavelski: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:28SJSJustin Braun: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:20SJSTimo Meier: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tierney won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins5:35
xG 0.14–0.08 (64%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- Maroon – Draisaitl – McDavid5:15
xG 0.27–0.31 (47%)attempts 8–4goals 2–0
- Pouliot – Beck – Caggiula2:11
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Letestu – Kassian4:55
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Russell – Larsson2:59
xG 0.05–0.06 (45%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Gryba – Davidson13:28
xG 0.39–0.54 (42%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
- Sekera – Russell8:55
xG 0.16–0.36 (31%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Marleau – Pavelski13:25
xG 0.67–0.38 (64%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Donskoi – Tierney – Meier8:11
xG 0.41–0.16 (71%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Couture – Boedker – Labanc7:13
xG 0.27–0.11 (71%)attempts 6–4goals 1–1
- Ward – Haley – Karlsson6:10
xG 0.08–0.06 (58%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – DeMelo11:32
xG 0.60–0.07 (90%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Braun13:50
xG 0.56–0.45 (55%)attempts 15–18goals 0–2
- Martin – Burns11:24
xG 0.31–0.25 (56%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).