Tue, Dec 27, 2016·Prudential Center, Newark
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, New Jersey Devils 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 110 | 210 | 29 | 529 |
| NJD | 28 | 06 | 09 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:18NJDPA ParenteauAssists: Taylor Hall · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 6:43PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Phil Kessel · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 8:23NJDAdam HenriquePPAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Travis Zajac · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 10:56PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Conor Sheary · Snap, 0.40 xG2–2
- P2 19:54PITJustin SchultzGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby · Snap, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 3:13PITCarl HagelinAssists: Chad Ruhwedel · Slap, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 18:42PITBryan RustENAssists: Nick Bonino, Carl Hagelin · Backhand, 0.67 xG5–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:55NJDKyle Palmieri: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:02PITMarc-Andre Fleury: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 14:31PITPatric Hornqvist: Interference2 min
- P1 17:10PITEvgeni Malkin: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:26PITJustin Schultz: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:43NJDDamon Severson: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 16:08NJDKyle Quincey: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:06PITScott Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:06NJDJohn Moore: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:21PITBryan Rust: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:02PITIan Cole: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Sheary9:58
xG 0.81–0.21 (79%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Kunitz – Malkin – Hornqvist7:34
xG 0.21–0.19 (52%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Kessel – Bonino – Hagelin8:05
xG 0.28–0.36 (44%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Cullen – Fehr – Wilson5:22
xG 0.05–0.14 (26%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Schultz5:58
xG 0.75–0.06 (93%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Cole – Ruhwedel6:39
xG 0.36–0.17 (68%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Dumoulin – Oleksy5:56
xG 0.22–0.19 (54%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestBennett – Zacha – Lappin2:24
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Smith-Pelly – Zacha4:31
xG 0.12–0.02 (85%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Fiddler – Smith-Pelly2:52
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Zajac – Palmieri – Wood7:47
xG 0.24–0.20 (54%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Severson13:32
xG 0.59–0.51 (54%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Quincey – Merrill11:38
xG 0.20–0.14 (58%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Lovejoy – Moore8:02
xG 0.17–0.25 (41%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).