Tue, Dec 27, 2016·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Boston Bruins 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 213 | 118 | 09 | 340 |
| CBJ | 38 | 08 | 16 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:02CBJScott HartnellAssists: Lukas Sedlak, Sam Gagner · Backhand, 0.29 xG0–1
- P1 8:47CBJSeth JonesAssists: Scott Hartnell, Brandon Saad · Slap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P1 9:39CBJMatt CalvertAssists: Josh Anderson · Snap, 0.42 xG0–3
- P1 11:05BOSDavid BackesAssists: David Krejci · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P1 12:00BOSAustin CzarnikAssists: Riley Nash, Torey Krug · Snap, 0.44 xG2–3
- P2 18:26BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Ryan Spooner, David Backes · Snap, 0.43 xG3–3
- P3 10:46CBJNick FolignoPPGWGAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Zach Werenski · Snap, 0.51 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:37BOSBrandon Carlo: Holding2 min
- P1 14:28CBJDavid Savard: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:22CBJJosh Anderson: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:22BOSAdam McQuaid: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:35BOSTorey Krug: Interference2 min
- P3 6:25CBJCam Atkinson: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:20BOSColin Miller: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:59CBJSeth Jones: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestNash – Vatrano – Czarnik8:20
xG 1.19–0.04 (97%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Backes – Krejci – Spooner12:37
xG 1.31–0.92 (59%)attempts 25–12goals 1–1
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak12:20
xG 0.50–0.52 (49%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Moore – Hayes – Blidh5:12
xG 0.12–0.27 (31%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Miller9:56
xG 0.90–0.05 (94%)attempts 22–3goals 0–0
- Chara – Carlo15:28
xG 0.71–0.76 (48%)attempts 13–16goals 0–1
- McQuaid – Krug13:29
xG 0.89–1.28 (41%)attempts 14–16goals 1–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Gagner – Sedlak6:37
xG 0.48–0.09 (84%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Calvert – Karlsson – Anderson9:56
xG 1.02–1.02 (50%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
- Foligno – Saad – Wennberg11:59
xG 0.52–0.81 (39%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner8:29
xG 0.14–0.95 (13%)attempts 7–15goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Werenski15:33
xG 0.95–0.47 (67%)attempts 18–14goals 1–0
- Murray – Nutivaara10:58
xG 0.23–0.77 (23%)attempts 5–17goals 0–0
- Johnson – Savard15:06
xG 1.18–2.02 (37%)attempts 16–23goals 1–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).