Tue, Dec 27, 2016·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Minnesota Wild 3, Nashville Predators 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 112 | 111 | 013 | 13 | 339 |
| NSH | 05 | 213 | 010 | 02 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:53MINZach ParisePPAssists: Mathew Dumba, Charlie Coyle · Tip-in, 0.22 xG1–0
- P2 4:39NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Ryan Johansen, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 6:01MINChris StewartAssists: Eric Staal, Jordan Schroeder · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 8:55NSHReid BoucherAssists: Austin Watson, Calle Jarnkrok · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–2
- OT 2:46MINJared SpurgeonGWGAssists: Jordan Schroeder, Charlie Coyle · Slap, 0.14 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:16MINNino Niederreiter: High sticking2 min
- P1 4:03NSHColin Wilson: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P1 6:18NSHKevin Fiala: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:14NSHMike Fisher: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:19NSHMattias Ekholm: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Haula won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Parise – Schroeder3:23
xG 0.33–0.02 (94%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Haula – Coyle – Niederreiter8:01
xG 0.11–0.03 (76%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Stewart – Schroeder – Graovac5:48
xG 0.19–0.19 (51%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Pominville – Staal – Parise7:33
xG 0.22–0.26 (45%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba13:39
xG 0.57–0.32 (64%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Scandella – Folin11:02
xG 0.70–0.62 (53%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
- Suter – Spurgeon20:44
xG 0.25–0.72 (25%)attempts 16–19goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Wilson – Smith7:09
xG 0.32–0.05 (87%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson13:48
xG 0.44–0.24 (65%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Ribeiro – Neal – Fiala9:14
xG 0.47–0.27 (63%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Watson – Boucher5:42
xG 0.17–0.07 (71%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis19:01
xG 0.66–0.45 (59%)attempts 17–15goals 0–0
- Weber – Granberg8:38
xG 0.33–0.22 (60%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Ekholm – Irwin18:35
xG 0.46–0.85 (35%)attempts 19–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).