Tue, Dec 27, 2016·Pepsi Center, Denver
Calgary Flames 6, Colorado Avalanche 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 09 | 415 | 27 | 631 |
| COL | 17 | 111 | 110 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:22COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Tyson Barrie · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 1:33CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 9:49CGYSam BennettAssists: Deryk Engelland, Mikael Backlund · Tip-in, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 11:45CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Dennis Wideman, TJ Brodie · Slap, 0.03 xG3–1
- P2 13:12COLJarome IginlaAssists: Carl Soderberg, Cody Goloubef · Slap, 0.07 xG3–2
- P2 15:51CGYMikael BacklundGWGAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Michael Frolik · Wrist, 0.33 xG4–2
- P3 10:22CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Kris Versteeg, Matt Stajan · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–2
- P3 13:12COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cody Goloubef · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–3
- P3 14:28CGYKris VersteegPPAssists: TJ Brodie, Johnny Gaudreau · Slap, 0.03 xG6–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 11:49CGYGarnet Hathaway: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:42COLMikhail Grigorenko: Interference2 min
- P2 13:39CGYDougie Hamilton: Holding2 min
- P2 17:07CGYTJ Brodie: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:33CGYMichael Frolik: Delaying game2 min
- P3 7:42CGYMark Giordano: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:22COLBlake Comeau: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 10:22COLBlake Comeau: Misconduct10 min
- P3 13:50COLJohn Mitchell: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:00CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestChiasson – Gaudreau – Bennett4:18
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Versteeg – Ferland – Monahan4:43
xG 0.35–0.32 (52%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Ferland – Gaudreau – Monahan3:40
xG 0.17–0.16 (50%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Versteeg – Chiasson – Bennett3:08
xG 0.01–0.02 (35%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton15:19
xG 1.09–0.31 (78%)attempts 26–7goals 1–0
- Engelland – Jokipakka10:10
xG 0.28–0.21 (57%)attempts 7–7goals 0–3
- Wideman – Brodie13:08
xG 0.36–0.47 (43%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestBourque – Duchene – Grigorenko10:32
xG 0.41–0.35 (54%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Iginla – Comeau – Soderberg8:59
xG 0.17–0.23 (42%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Colborne – Martinsen5:37
xG 0.09–0.42 (17%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen11:59
xG 0.25–1.24 (17%)attempts 5–12goals 2–3
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Zadorov4:06
xG 0.13–0.04 (74%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Tyutin2:23
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
- Goloubef – Gelinas9:10
xG 0.28–0.38 (42%)attempts 11–9goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).