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Ice Lab

Wed, Dec 28, 2016·Scottrade Center, St. Louis

Philadelphia Flyers 3, St. Louis Blues 6

Away

Philadelphia Flyers

3

Final

Home

St. Louis Blues

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 81% of the time.

STL winsPHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PHI1514111320
STL2110945625

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:25PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Travis Konecny, Brayden Schenn · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–0
  2. P1 15:01STLKevin ShattenkirkPPAssists: Alexander Steen, Vladimir Tarasenko · Slap, 0.10 xG1–1
  3. P1 19:48STLRobby FabbriPPAssists: Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
  4. P2 4:32PHINick CousinsAssists: Ivan Provorov, Travis Konecny · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–2
  5. P3 4:13PHIBrayden SchennPPAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Wayne Simmonds · Slap, 0.13 xG3–2
  6. P3 5:53STLDavid PerronAssists: Colton Parayko · Tip-in, 0.05 xG3–3
  7. P3 7:13STLScottie UpshallGWGAssists: Joel Edmundson, Alex Pietrangelo · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–4
  8. P3 15:01STLRobby FabbriAssists: Patrik Berglund, Dmitrij Jaskin · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–5
  9. P3 17:04STLRobby FabbriENAssists: Dmitrij Jaskin, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.68 xG3–6
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 9:11STLRyan Reaves: Slashing2 min
  2. P1 9:11PHIChris VandeVelde: Tripping2 min
  3. P1 14:43PHIClaude Giroux: Holding2 min · PPG
  4. P1 17:53PHIRoman Lyubimov: Hooking2 min · PPG
  5. P2 2:27STLJay Bouwmeester: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  6. P2 6:43PHITaylor Leier: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  7. P2 9:05STLScottie Upshall: Hooking2 min
  8. P3 2:35STLDmitrij Jaskin: Boarding2 min · PPG
  9. P3 11:44PHINick Schultz: Tripping2 min
  10. P3 17:54STLPaul Stastny: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0STL
44% to win56% to win
← PHI attackSTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Lehtera won the faceoff against Giroux
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHISTL
20Shots on goal25
1.3Expected goals2.9
44Shot attempts45
47Faceoffs won34
4Power plays4
10Penalty minutes10
29Hits30
10Blocked shots21
2Giveaways5
6Takeaways7

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Philadelphia Flyers

Forward lines

  1. Giroux – Voracek – Leier10:12

    xG 0.07–0.12 (39%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0

  2. Simmonds – Schenn – Konecny10:22

    xG 0.22–0.36 (38%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1

  3. VandeVelde – Bellemare – Lyubimov4:14

    xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1

  4. Weise – Cousins – Couturier9:48

    xG 0.14–0.35 (29%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. Del Zotto – Gudas13:04

    xG 0.19–0.28 (41%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1

  2. Schultz – Gostisbehere11:59

    xG 0.24–0.40 (38%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0

  3. MacDonald – Provorov14:35

    xG 0.12–0.41 (23%)attempts 7–11goals 0–2

St. Louis Blues

Forward lines

  1. bestStastny – Perron – Schwartz8:23

    xG 0.41–0.04 (91%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0

  2. Berglund – Jaskin – Fabbri9:14

    xG 0.36–0.14 (72%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0

  3. Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves6:58

    xG 0.26–0.14 (65%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0

  4. Steen – Stastny – Perron3:03

    xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestPietrangelo – Edmundson10:24

    xG 0.52–0.11 (83%)attempts 9–7goals 2–0

  2. Bouwmeester – Parayko14:02

    xG 0.18–0.14 (57%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0

  3. Shattenkirk – Gunnarsson12:04

    xG 0.19–0.21 (48%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

STL 2.9 xGPHI 1.3 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

STLPHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 86/100 · #149 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.01 · 9 goals in reachComeback index 26% (winner's lowest chance)
PHI 100%5050%50STL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +34 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 81% of the time.

STL winsPHI wins

Simulated goal difference (STL − PHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).