Wed, Dec 28, 2016·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Los Angeles Kings 1, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 06 | 013 | 118 | 137 |
| VAN | 112 | 14 | 04 | 220 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:43VANLoui ErikssonPPAssists: Bo Horvat, Ben Hutton · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P2 0:23VANHenrik SedinGWGAssists: Troy Stecher · Deflected, 0.13 xG0–2
- P3 16:43LAKTanner PearsonAssists: Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:54LAKJake Muzzin: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 6:15LAKNic Dowd: Interference2 min
- P1 11:17LAKNic Dowd: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:03VANSven Baertschi: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 3:52VANBo Horvat: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestClifford – Nolan – Shore7:50
xG 0.97–0.18 (84%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Carter – Setoguchi – Pearson9:54
xG 0.40–0.03 (94%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Gaborik – Brown – Kopitar9:56
xG 0.55–0.36 (60%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Lewis – King – Dowd9:08
xG 0.07–0.12 (37%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Forbort18:35
xG 0.86–0.46 (65%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Muzzin – Martinez13:19
xG 0.57–0.23 (71%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Greene – Gravel8:39
xG 0.39–0.08 (82%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- Skille – Chaput – Gaunce6:41
xG 0.13–0.15 (46%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Megna11:27
xG 0.33–0.55 (37%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Eriksson – Sutter – Granlund11:59
xG 0.15–0.49 (23%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Burrows – Baertschi – Horvat9:00
xG 0.16–0.62 (20%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Stecher13:52
xG 0.56–0.24 (70%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Sbisa – Tanev16:16
xG 0.09–0.86 (10%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
- Hutton – Tryamkin10:37
xG 0.08–0.93 (8%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).