Thu, Dec 29, 2016·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Boston Bruins 4, Buffalo Sabres 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 09 | 216 | 213 | 438 |
| BUF | 216 | 010 | 07 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:32BUFMarcus FolignoAssists: Jack Eichel, Matt Moulson · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 18:10BUFKyle OkposoPPAssists: Matt Moulson, Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–2
- P2 3:20BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Brad Marchand, Torey Krug · Slap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 16:13BOSDavid KrejciPPAssists: Frank Vatrano · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 16:07BOSRyan SpoonerGWGAssists: David Krejci, Frank Vatrano · Slap, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 19:08BOSRyan SpoonerENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.69 xG4–2
Penalties (16)
- P1 4:13BOSBrandon Carlo: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:18BUFCody Franson: Interference2 min
- P1 11:59BOSColin Miller: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:53BUFWilliam Carrier: Illegal check to head2 min
- P1 17:08BUFWilliam Carrier: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:08BOSAdam McQuaid: Instigator2 min · PPG
- P1 17:08BOSAdam McQuaid: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:08BOSAdam McQuaid: Misconduct10 min
- P2 3:53BOSColin Miller: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:53BUFBrian Gionta: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:23BOSDominic Moore: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:16BOSKevan Miller: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:31BUFJosh Gorges: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:19BUFMatt Moulson: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:01BOSZdeno Chara: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:19BUFCody Franson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Larsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak10:31
xG 0.52–0.28 (65%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Moore – Nash – Blidh2:52
xG 0.10–0.04 (70%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Krejci – Spooner – Vatrano4:37
xG 0.09–0.05 (62%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Schaller – Vatrano – Czarnik2:58
xG 0.08–0.08 (51%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Krug5:05
xG 0.25–0.08 (77%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Miller – Krug2:06
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- McQuaid – Krug5:58
xG 0.18–0.24 (42%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Girgensons – Reinhart5:09
xG 0.18–0.02 (89%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Okposo – Deslauriers – Reinhart2:51
xG 0.14–0.06 (69%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Moulson – Foligno – Eichel6:49
xG 0.18–0.14 (56%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Gionta – Kane – Larsson10:21
xG 0.26–0.52 (34%)attempts 9–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – McCabe10:54
xG 0.51–0.20 (72%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Franson – McCabe2:43
xG 0.11–0.04 (72%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Franson – Falk5:45
xG 0.29–0.31 (49%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).