Thu, Dec 29, 2016·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Detroit Red Wings 3, Ottawa Senators 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 112 | 17 | 08 | 11 | 328 |
| OTT | 114 | 19 | 05 | 00 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:37DETThomas VanekAssists: Brendan Smith, Frans Nielsen · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 19:43OTTDerick BrassardAssists: Mike Hoffman · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 5:43OTTMark StoneAssists: Derick Brassard · Slap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 9:18DETTomas TatarAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Nick Jensen · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
- OT 1:07DETAnthony ManthaGWGAssists: Niklas Kronwall · Snap, 0.17 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:36OTTMark Borowiecki: Interference2 min
- P2 12:47OTTChris Neil: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:47DETXavier Ouellet: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:31DETSteve Ott: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 18:53OTTMarc Methot: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:57OTTDion Phaneuf: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:09DETTomas Tatar: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:41OTTChris Wideman: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Vanek – Nyquist9:39
xG 1.22–0.55 (69%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Zetterberg – Tatar – Mantha12:48
xG 0.59–0.45 (57%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
- Ott – Miller – Athanasiou2:48
xG 0.11–0.15 (43%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Jurco – Glendening – Larkin7:12
xG 0.03–0.19 (12%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Smith9:59
xG 0.76–0.33 (70%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Smith – DeKeyser4:09
xG 0.02–0.04 (32%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Jensen – DeKeyser8:55
xG 0.42–0.50 (46%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Lazar – Bailey3:37
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Ryan – Turris – Dzingel12:11
xG 0.45–0.38 (54%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
- Brassard – Hoffman – Stone9:00
xG 0.42–0.39 (52%)attempts 11–10goals 2–1
- Neil – Kelly – Bailey2:30
xG 0.10–0.06 (61%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Wideman6:06
xG 0.30–0.03 (91%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Ceci12:12
xG 0.60–0.52 (54%)attempts 15–13goals 1–1
- Karlsson – Borowiecki2:10
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).