Thu, Dec 29, 2016·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Montréal Canadiens 3, Florida Panthers 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 017 | 110 | 112 | 12 | 341 |
| FLA | 19 | 116 | 08 | 00 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:58FLAJason DemersAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Jonathan Marchessault · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 5:45MTLMax PaciorettyPPAssists: Alexander Radulov, Nathan Beaulieu · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 9:02FLAVincent TrocheckPPAssists: Keith Yandle · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 17:23MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Phillip Danault · Snap, 0.04 xG2–2
- OT 0:39MTLPhillip DanaultGWGAssists: Max Pacioretty · Slap, 0.12 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P2 1:22FLAMike Matheson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 3:54MTLMichael McCarron: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:54FLAPaul Thompson: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 3:54FLAPaul Thompson: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:10MTLChris Terry: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 9:24MTLJeff Petry: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:23MTLRyan Johnston: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mitchell won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Mitchell – Byron10:42
xG 0.66–0.40 (62%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Terry – McCarron – Carr5:09
xG 0.14–0.03 (81%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Lehkonen – Carr2:07
xG 0.07–0.01 (84%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Flynn – Lehkonen8:28
xG 0.15–0.14 (53%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarberio – Johnston11:33
xG 0.85–0.16 (84%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Petry – Beaulieu17:27
xG 0.74–0.32 (70%)attempts 23–12goals 1–0
- Weber – Emelin17:24
xG 0.41–0.96 (30%)attempts 11–25goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Trocheck – Marchessault14:02
xG 0.49–0.30 (62%)attempts 19–11goals 1–0
- Sceviour – Sgarbossa – Malgin8:17
xG 0.13–0.16 (44%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Jagr – Bjugstad – Griffith11:27
xG 0.28–0.75 (27%)attempts 6–17goals 0–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Thompson6:43
xG 0.12–0.71 (14%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Demers15:23
xG 0.64–0.34 (65%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
- Kindl – Ekblad2:01
xG 0.11–0.16 (41%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Matheson6:35
xG 0.26–0.36 (43%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).