Thu, Dec 29, 2016·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 16 | 010 | 27 | 323 |
| NSH | 116 | 09 | 113 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:19CHIArtem AnisimovPPAssists: Duncan Keith, Artemi Panarin · Tip-in, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 13:54NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Ryan Johansen · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P3 6:13NSHMike FisherPPAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Ryan Johansen · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 11:04CHIJonathan ToewsPPAssists: Brent Seabrook, Patrick Kane · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–2
- P3 14:48CHIPatrick KaneGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:38NSHPetter Granberg: Holding2 min
- P1 10:16CHITrevor van Riemsdyk: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:51NSHMike Ribeiro: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:47CHIDuncan Keith: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:51CHIDennis Rasmussen: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:43NSHRyan Johansen: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:18NSHMattias Ekholm: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:06CHIRyan Hartman: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 9:46NSHCraig Smith: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 0:00CHIJonathan Toews: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Tootoo – Motte – Kero3:24
xG 0.03–0.03 (51%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Panik – Kruger – Rasmussen6:47
xG 0.06–0.09 (38%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
- Anisimov – Kane – Panarin12:02
xG 0.25–0.35 (41%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Toews – Hinostroza – Hartman11:11
xG 0.12–0.26 (32%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – van Riemsdyk15:18
xG 0.34–0.28 (55%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Rozsival – Kempny9:57
xG 0.12–0.16 (43%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Hjalmarsson14:35
xG 0.13–0.59 (18%)attempts 6–23goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson11:05
xG 0.43–0.07 (87%)attempts 19–5goals 1–1
- Ribeiro – Smith – Fiala10:25
xG 0.33–0.18 (65%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Fisher – Neal – Wilson3:27
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Watson – Boucher3:23
xG 0.05–0.04 (57%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis16:46
xG 0.57–0.28 (67%)attempts 24–15goals 1–1
- Ekholm – Irwin13:24
xG 0.28–0.09 (77%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Weber – Granberg7:36
xG 0.16–0.12 (58%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).