Thu, Dec 29, 2016·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
New York Islanders 4, Minnesota Wild 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 16 | 111 | 211 | 428 |
| MIN | 111 | 314 | 211 | 636 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:34MINMarco ScandellaAssists: Mikael Granlund, Christian Folin · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 14:05NYIJason ChimeraAssists: Andrew Ladd, Thomas Hickey · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 6:15NYINick LeddyPPAssists: John Tavares, Josh Bailey · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 14:20MINChris StewartAssists: Jason Pominville, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 14:55MINJared SpurgeonAssists: Mikko Koivu, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 15:40MINJordan SchroederAssists: Jonas Brodin, Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 0:55NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Shane Prince, Thomas Hickey · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–4
- P3 1:37NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Calvin de Haan, Dennis Seidenberg · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–4
- P3 10:30MINErik HaulaGWGAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–5
- P3 18:19MINMikael GranlundENAssists: Eric Staal, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.73 xG4–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 17:51NYIAnders Lee: Interference2 min
- P2 5:57MINMathew Dumba: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:51MINTyler Graovac: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:00MINErik Haula: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00NYIRyan Strome: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:47MINChristian Folin: Interference2 min
- P3 19:33MINDevan Dubnyk: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:33NYIAnders Lee: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Clutterbuck – Kulemin – Strome10:53
xG 0.30–0.33 (47%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Chimera – Ladd – Quine9:40
xG 0.54–0.60 (47%)attempts 16–15goals 1–1
- Nelson – Prince – Beauvillier9:49
xG 0.17–0.24 (41%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee13:12
xG 0.20–0.71 (22%)attempts 8–17goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – de Haan14:49
xG 0.66–0.26 (71%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Boychuk2:10
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Leddy18:38
xG 0.30–0.68 (30%)attempts 13–21goals 0–2
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Zucker – Granlund13:06
xG 0.71–0.22 (76%)attempts 17–8goals 2–0
- Staal – Parise – Schroeder4:58
xG 0.35–0.19 (64%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Haula – Coyle – Niederreiter9:31
xG 0.20–0.11 (64%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Pominville – Stewart – Graovac4:06
xG 0.10–0.10 (50%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon18:39
xG 0.83–0.27 (75%)attempts 23–12goals 2–1
- Brodin – Dumba15:19
xG 0.44–0.22 (67%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Scandella – Folin14:27
xG 0.70–0.65 (52%)attempts 15–18goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).