Thu, Dec 29, 2016·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Colorado Avalanche 2, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 16 | 07 | 16 | 219 |
| DAL | 210 | 113 | 111 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:11DALDevin ShoreAssists: Lauri Korpikoski, Patrick Eaves · Tip-in, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 11:26DALTyler SeguinAssists: Jamie Benn, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P1 15:48COLMatt DucheneAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Tyson Barrie · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 4:52DALJamie OleksiakGWGAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 7:27COLMikhail GrigorenkoAssists: Tyson Barrie, Matt Duchene · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–3
- P3 19:34DALTyler SeguinENAssists: Jason Spezza, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.47 xG2–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 5:28DALJiri Hudler: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:09COLRene Bourque: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:40COLJarome Iginla: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:40DALJamie Oleksiak: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:40COLJarome Iginla: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:31DALPatrick Eaves: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:59DALRadek Faksa: Delaying game2 min
- P2 15:29COLFrancois Beauchemin: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:25COLTyson Barrie: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 4:56COLJarome Iginla: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 5:26DALJohn Klingberg: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:05COLGabriel Landeskog: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Mitchell – McLeod – Martinsen2:38
xG 0.01–0.05 (19%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen7:36
xG 0.07–0.24 (22%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Bourque – MacKinnon – Rantanen2:42
xG 0.01–0.22 (6%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Iginla – Comeau – Soderberg2:33
xG 0.07–0.36 (17%)attempts 2–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Barrie11:13
xG 0.83–0.76 (52%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Wiercioch2:29
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Barrie – Gelinas2:02
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestEaves – Korpikoski – Shore7:38
xG 0.95–0.13 (88%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Spezza – Benn – Seguin9:15
xG 0.52–0.09 (85%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0
- Hudler – Cracknell – Eakin5:34
xG 0.51–0.12 (81%)attempts 14–2goals 0–0
- Cracknell – McKenzie – Faksa2:19
xG 0.09–0.03 (73%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Benn13:46
xG 1.30–0.81 (62%)attempts 22–13goals 1–1
- Klingberg – Lindell10:51
xG 0.33–0.09 (78%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Oduya – Klingberg2:00
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).