Fri, Dec 30, 2016·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Nashville Predators 4, St. Louis Blues 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 06 | 38 | 19 | 423 |
| STL | 09 | 04 | 012 | 025 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:52NSHYannick WeberGWGAssists: Craig Smith, Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 7:26NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 17:36NSHViktor ArvidssonAssists: Matt Irwin, Mike Fisher · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–0
- P3 8:08NSHColin WilsonPPAssists: Filip Forsberg, Ryan Ellis · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–0
Penalties (12)
- P1 10:16NSHMike Fisher: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:03NSHMatt Irwin: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:06STLDmitrij Jaskin: Boarding2 min
- P2 5:37STLKyle Brodziak: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:19NSHCraig Smith: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:36STLJoel Edmundson: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:36NSHAustin Watson: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:34STLScottie Upshall: Charging2 min
- P3 6:10STLDavid Perron: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 8:54STLKevin Shattenkirk: Holding2 min
- P3 12:00STLPatrik Berglund: Interference2 min
- P3 13:14NSHMike Ribeiro: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jarnkrok won the faceoff against Brodziak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Neal – Wilson7:01
xG 0.40–0.05 (88%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson5:38
xG 0.15–0.06 (72%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Smith – Fiala7:47
xG 0.22–0.14 (60%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Jarnkrok – Watson – Sissons8:46
xG 0.06–0.12 (34%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis14:53
xG 0.44–0.18 (71%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Irwin12:05
xG 0.35–0.19 (65%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Weber – Granberg8:24
xG 0.38–0.38 (50%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBerglund – Jaskin – Fabbri7:51
xG 0.36–0.26 (58%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Steen – Lehtera – Tarasenko5:35
xG 0.04–0.07 (36%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves5:24
xG 0.07–0.14 (33%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
- Stastny – Perron – Schwartz8:04
xG 0.10–0.26 (28%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Gunnarsson11:12
xG 0.24–0.15 (62%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Parayko3:25
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Edmundson10:13
xG 0.24–0.24 (50%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).