Fri, Dec 30, 2016·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Anaheim Ducks 2, Vancouver Canucks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 16 | 110 | 08 | 02 | 226 |
| VAN | 07 | 110 | 17 | 12 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:48ANARyan GetzlafSHAssists: Joseph Cramarossa, Josh Manson · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 0:52ANARickard RakellAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Corey Perry · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–0
- P2 7:59VANLoui ErikssonPPAssists: Ben Hutton, Bo Horvat · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 2:02VANJack SkilleAssists: Sven Baertschi, Alexander Edler · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–2
- OT 4:01VANHenrik SedinGWGAssists: Loui Eriksson, Ryan Miller · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:45ANAHampus Lindholm: Hooking2 min
- P1 4:12ANAAntoine Vermette: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:36ANAShea Theodore: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 6:23ANARyan Getzlaf: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:25ANAHampus Lindholm: Interference2 min
- P2 10:55VANJack Skille: Interference2 min
- P3 2:44ANAAndrew Cogliano: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:43ANAHampus Lindholm: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Cramarossa – Shaw4:12
xG 0.17–0.07 (72%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Ritchie – Kase6:44
xG 0.14–0.16 (47%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg12:40
xG 0.12–0.41 (23%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Vermette – Perry – Rakell9:57
xG 0.36–0.85 (30%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Theodore10:00
xG 0.27–0.21 (56%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Holzer – Fowler4:05
xG 0.12–0.08 (59%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Fowler3:23
xG 0.10–0.13 (43%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBurrows – Baertschi – Horvat9:29
xG 0.55–0.16 (77%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Sutter – Granlund5:17
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Eriksson4:35
xG 0.07–0.02 (75%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Megna6:32
xG 0.08–0.08 (50%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Stecher16:16
xG 1.05–0.64 (62%)attempts 17–12goals 1–1
- Edler – Tryamkin2:11
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Hutton – Tryamkin8:47
xG 0.11–0.05 (68%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).