Sat, Dec 31, 2016·Prudential Center, Newark
Washington Capitals 6, New Jersey Devils 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 27 | 314 | 15 | 626 |
| NJD | 05 | 111 | 17 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:36WSHBrett ConnollyAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Brooks Orpik · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 19:01WSHJay BeagleAssists: Brooks Orpik, Daniel Winnik · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 6:53NJDKyle PalmieriUnassisted · Snap, 0.22 xG2–1
- P2 11:05WSHT.J. OshieGWGAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin · Snap, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 11:38WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Matt Niskanen, T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–1
- P2 16:34WSHJustin WilliamsAssists: Matt Niskanen, Dmitry Orlov · Tip-in, 0.10 xG5–1
- P3 14:52NJDBeau BennettAssists: Ben Lovejoy, Jon Merrill · Tip-in, 0.07 xG5–2
- P3 15:27WSHMarcus JohanssonAssists: Justin Williams, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Deflected, 0.15 xG6–2
Penalties (19)
- P1 5:13NJDDevante Smith-Pelly: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:13WSHBrett Connolly: Slashing2 min
- P1 5:13WSHBrett Connolly: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:34WSHAlex Ovechkin: Illegal check to head2 min
- P1 11:06WSHDmitry Orlov: Interference2 min
- P1 12:07NJDDamon Severson: Interference2 min
- P1 19:47WSHLars Eller: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 5:01WSHJustin Williams: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:07NJDTravis Zajac: Interference2 min
- P2 5:54WSHDmitry Orlov: Interference2 min
- P2 5:58NJDPA Parenteau: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:21WSHAndre Burakovsky: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 12:15WSHJustin Williams: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 19:23WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:23NJDLuke Gazdic: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:29WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:35NJDPA Parenteau: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:35NJDPA Parenteau: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:35WSHDaniel Winnik: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Oshie – Backstrom9:49
xG 0.41–0.10 (80%)attempts 8–9goals 2–1
- Williams – Johansson – Kuznetsov8:53
xG 0.62–0.42 (60%)attempts 11–6goals 2–0
- Eller – Connolly – Burakovsky6:51
xG 0.28–0.09 (76%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Winnik – Beagle – Wilson4:29
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Orlov11:31
xG 0.43–0.17 (72%)attempts 12–5goals 3–0
- Alzner – Carlson12:14
xG 0.47–0.28 (63%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Orpik – Schmidt13:18
xG 0.53–0.42 (56%)attempts 9–10goals 2–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Parenteau – Henrique – Bennett7:25
xG 0.17–0.16 (52%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Cammalleri – Zajac – Palmieri8:10
xG 0.02–0.10 (16%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Gazdic – Kalinin – Lappin3:59
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Josefson – Smith-Pelly – Wood7:42
xG 0.22–0.68 (24%)attempts 5–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Merrill7:18
xG 0.50–0.37 (58%)attempts 11–7goals 1–2
- Quincey – Greene4:06
xG 0.12–0.06 (67%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Greene – Lovejoy3:12
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).