Sat, Dec 31, 2016·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Minnesota Wild 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 18 | 310 | 07 | 425 |
| MIN | 08 | 17 | 116 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:05CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Brandon Dubinsky · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 3:29CBJJack JohnsonAssists: Brandon Saad, Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 3:44CBJCam AtkinsonGWGAssists: Ryan Murray, Markus Nutivaara · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–0
- P2 5:58MINMikael GranlundPPAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–1
- P2 17:35CBJSeth JonesAssists: Brandon Saad, Nick Foligno · Snap, 0.09 xG4–1
- P3 0:24MINJason ZuckerAssists: Mikael Granlund, Jared Spurgeon · Backhand, 0.09 xG4–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 14:53MINMarco Scandella: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 17:58MINJason Zucker: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:58CBJMatt Calvert: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:52CBJSergei Bobrovsky: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 2:28CBJJosh Anderson: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 2:28MINChris Stewart: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:28CBJMatt Calvert: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:28MINMathew Dumba: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:28MINMathew Dumba: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 2:28CBJMatt Calvert: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 5:11CBJRyan Murray: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:07MINMikael Granlund: Interference2 min
- P3 16:22CBJRyan Murray: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner11:01
xG 0.31–0.09 (77%)attempts 9–6goals 2–0
- Hartnell – Gagner – Sedlak4:56
xG 0.16–0.19 (46%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Karlsson – Anderson2:20
xG 0.01–0.07 (15%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Calvert – Karlsson – Anderson4:18
xG 0.07–0.27 (20%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Jones – Werenski14:39
xG 0.28–0.28 (49%)attempts 17–11goals 1–1
- Murray – Nutivaara14:18
xG 0.57–0.62 (48%)attempts 8–13goals 2–0
- Johnson – Savard16:05
xG 0.37–0.50 (42%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStewart – Schroeder – Graovac4:10
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Granlund11:48
xG 0.36–0.15 (71%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Pominville – Haula – Niederreiter3:29
xG 0.21–0.11 (65%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
- Haula – Coyle – Niederreiter5:54
xG 0.12–0.10 (56%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon14:55
xG 0.88–0.08 (92%)attempts 21–5goals 1–0
- Brodin – Dumba4:55
xG 0.19–0.16 (55%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Suter – Brodin2:32
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).