Sat, Dec 31, 2016·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
New York Islanders 6, Winnipeg Jets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 27 | 210 | 27 | 624 |
| WPG | 010 | 113 | 111 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:54NYINikolay KuleminUnassisted · Slap, 0.32 xG1–0
- P1 12:25NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Josh Bailey · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 2:26NYIShane PrinceGWGAssists: Ryan Strome, Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–0
- P2 14:13NYIRyan StromeAssists: Johnny Boychuk · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–0
- P2 19:30WPGShawn MatthiasSHAssists: Jacob Trouba, Adam Lowry · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–1
- P3 8:38NYIAnders LeeAssists: Josh Bailey, John Tavares · Deflected, 0.14 xG5–1
- P3 10:18NYIAndrew LaddPPAssists: Brock Nelson, Cal Clutterbuck · Wrist, 0.14 xG6–1
- P3 16:55WPGNikolaj EhlersPPAssists: Patrik Laine, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.06 xG6–2
Penalties (5)
- P2 3:38NYIJohn Tavares: Holding2 min
- P2 12:03NYIJohnny Boychuk: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:00WPGDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:54WPGBen Chiarot: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 15:50NYIJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Quine won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Tavares – Lee12:13
xG 0.52–0.35 (60%)attempts 5–11goals 2–0
- Clutterbuck – Kulemin – Cizikas7:52
xG 0.07–0.16 (29%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Nelson – Prince – Strome9:20
xG 0.23–0.39 (37%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Chimera – Ladd – Quine11:04
xG 0.23–0.45 (34%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – de Haan15:10
xG 1.41–0.27 (84%)attempts 19–9goals 3–0
- Boychuk – Hickey13:26
xG 0.38–0.32 (55%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Hamonic – Leddy15:19
xG 0.18–0.47 (28%)attempts 6–20goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Little – Perreault13:39
xG 0.29–0.24 (55%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Ehlers – Laine12:15
xG 0.47–0.49 (49%)attempts 14–11goals 0–2
- Stafford – Copp – Petan9:21
xG 0.19–0.45 (30%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Matthias – Lowry – Armia9:58
xG 0.33–0.69 (32%)attempts 8–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Trouba17:38
xG 0.65–0.48 (57%)attempts 20–11goals 0–1
- Byfuglien – Morrissey15:39
xG 0.27–0.63 (30%)attempts 13–14goals 0–2
- Postma – Chiarot13:23
xG 0.21–0.77 (22%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).