Sat, Dec 31, 2016·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Florida Panthers 3, Dallas Stars 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 322 | 09 | 07 | 338 |
| DAL | 06 | 110 | 020 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:06FLAVincent TrocheckAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Seth Griffith · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–0
- P1 15:32FLAJussi JokinenPPGWGAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P1 16:40FLAJaromir JagrPPAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Keith Yandle · Snap, 0.07 xG3–0
- P2 16:32DALPatrick EavesPPAssists: Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.36 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:26DALJamie Benn: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:46DALLauri Korpikoski: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P2 9:20FLAJaromir Jagr: Interference2 min
- P2 16:00FLAJaromir Jagr: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 1:17FLAAaron Ekblad: Holding2 min
- P3 10:48FLASeth Griffith: Delaying game2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Trocheck – Griffith13:35
xG 0.75–0.42 (64%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Sgarbossa – Marchessault – Malgin9:06
xG 0.15–0.26 (37%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – McKegg6:21
xG 0.08–0.22 (26%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Smith – Bjugstad11:44
xG 0.78–1.22 (39%)attempts 23–24goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Ekblad16:01
xG 1.10–0.71 (61%)attempts 20–18goals 1–0
- Kindl – Pysyk12:31
xG 0.40–0.19 (68%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Yandle – Demers17:08
xG 0.39–1.16 (25%)attempts 20–26goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestEaves – Korpikoski – Shore9:06
xG 0.43–0.10 (81%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- McKenzie – Ritchie – Faksa9:07
xG 0.54–0.26 (67%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Spezza – Benn – Seguin11:31
xG 0.76–0.97 (44%)attempts 14–21goals 0–1
- Sharp – Hudler – Eakin6:25
xG 0.07–0.29 (20%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell16:05
xG 0.94–0.47 (67%)attempts 24–15goals 0–0
- Oduya – Benn12:43
xG 0.79–0.57 (58%)attempts 18–17goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Oleksiak13:13
xG 0.36–0.29 (55%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).