Sat, Dec 31, 2016·Pepsi Center, Denver
New York Rangers 6, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 212 | 214 | 211 | 637 |
| COL | 210 | 06 | 011 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:59COLCody McLeodAssists: Tyson Barrie, Mikhail Grigorenko · Tip-in, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 6:09NYRChris KreiderAssists: Derek Stepan, Mats Zuccarello · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 16:39NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Ryan McDonagh · Deflected, 0.07 xG2–1
- P1 18:34COLBlake ComeauAssists: Francois Beauchemin, Rene Bourque · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 9:30NYRJ.T. MillerGWGUnassisted · Slap, 0.01 xG3–2
- P2 14:20NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Derek Stepan, Brandon Pirri · Tip-in, 0.17 xG4–2
- P3 9:34NYRJ.T. MillerAssists: Oscar Lindberg, Jesper Fast · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–2
- P3 13:05NYRJimmy VeseyAssists: Michael Grabner, Kevin Hayes · Wrist, 0.16 xG6–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 16:32COLJohn Mitchell: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 18:56COLNikita Zadorov: Interference2 min
- P1 19:48NYRRyan McDonagh: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:31COLAndreas Martinsen: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 16:06COLJarome Iginla: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:20COLNathan MacKinnon: Holding2 min
- P3 17:26NYRDan Girardi: Holding2 min
- P3 19:30NYRRyan McDonagh: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Soderberg won the faceoff against Hayes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Kreider – Zuccarello11:03
xG 0.42–0.29 (59%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Pirri – Hrivik – Puempel5:48
xG 0.09–0.05 (65%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Lindberg – Fast – Miller10:35
xG 0.20–0.26 (44%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Grabner – Hayes – Vesey9:15
xG 0.33–0.57 (37%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – Skjei10:55
xG 0.70–0.16 (82%)attempts 11–10goals 2–1
- Klein – McDonagh16:06
xG 0.47–0.43 (52%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Staal – Holden16:37
xG 0.51–0.86 (37%)attempts 10–22goals 1–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMitchell – Comeau – Bourque9:37
xG 0.25–0.10 (70%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Iginla – Soderberg – Duchene11:32
xG 0.42–0.35 (54%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen13:06
xG 0.27–0.49 (36%)attempts 11–11goals 0–2
- McLeod – Grigorenko – Martinsen4:46
xG 0.06–0.70 (7%)attempts 2–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWiercioch – Gelinas9:55
xG 0.33–0.10 (76%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Barrie – Zadorov2:14
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Zadorov6:38
xG 0.52–0.55 (49%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).