Sat, Dec 31, 2016·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
San Jose Sharks 2, Los Angeles Kings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 06 | 06 | 28 | 220 |
| LAK | 113 | 16 | 18 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:17LAKTanner PearsonAssists: Alec Martinez · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 1:31LAKDrew DoughtyPPAssists: Nic Dowd, Alec Martinez · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P3 0:12SJSBrent BurnsPPAssists: Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau · Snap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 3:56LAKJeff CarterGWGAssists: Tanner Pearson, Jake Muzzin · Snap, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 13:57SJSKevin LabancAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Brenden Dillon · Snap, 0.07 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:31LAKKyle Clifford: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:31SJSMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:09SJSPaul Martin: Interference2 min
- P1 15:00LAKAlec Martinez: Interference2 min
- P2 0:32SJSBrent Burns: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:19SJSPatrick Marleau: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:35LAKAnze Kopitar: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 6:12SJSBrent Burns: Holding2 min
- P3 9:03LAKJeff Carter: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:28SJSJoe Thornton: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Ward – Haley – Karlsson6:54
xG 0.03–0.07 (31%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Pavelski11:01
xG 0.37–0.43 (47%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
- Donskoi – Tierney – Meier10:21
xG 0.12–0.41 (23%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Couture – Boedker – Labanc9:14
xG 0.19–0.52 (27%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Dillon – DeMelo12:24
xG 0.15–0.31 (33%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Schlemko – Braun10:36
xG 0.17–0.40 (30%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Martin – Burns15:19
xG 0.39–0.68 (37%)attempts 14–21goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Brown – Kopitar9:43
xG 0.54–0.09 (86%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Carter – Setoguchi – Pearson7:54
xG 0.47–0.14 (77%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
- Lewis – Clifford – Dowd8:29
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- King – Nolan – Shore9:15
xG 0.21–0.23 (47%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Forbort16:09
xG 0.65–0.17 (79%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Martinez13:34
xG 0.67–0.29 (70%)attempts 19–11goals 2–0
- McNabb – Gravel10:01
xG 0.29–0.09 (76%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).