Sun, Jan 1, 2017·Honda Center, Anaheim
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Anaheim Ducks 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 114 | 224 | 014 | 03 | 1 | 355 |
| ANA | 28 | 15 | 010 | 02 | 2 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:55ANARyan KeslerAssists: Korbinian Holzer, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 8:14PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Brayden Schenn · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–1
- P1 16:54ANARyan KeslerAssists: Jakob Silfverberg · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 1:09ANARyan KeslerAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Sami Vatanen · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 1:46PHISean CouturierUnassisted · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–3
- P2 3:06PHIBrayden SchennPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.41 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. ANA Rickard Rakell scored
- 2. PHI Shayne Gostisbehere stopped
- 3. ANA Ondrej Kase stopped
- 4. PHI Claude Giroux stopped
- 5. ANA Cam Fowler stopped
- 6. PHI Jakub Voracek scored
- 7. ANA Jakob Silfverberg stopped
- 8. PHI Wayne Simmonds stopped
- 9. ANA Corey Perry scored
- 10. PHI Sean Couturier stopped
Penalties (12)
- P1 1:35PHIWayne Simmonds: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:35ANAKevin Bieksa: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:39PHIRoman Lyubimov: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:39PHIClaude Giroux: Holding2 min
- P1 12:04ANARyan Getzlaf: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:58PHITravis Konecny: Embellishment2 min
- P1 13:58ANAJosh Manson: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:54PHIWayne Simmonds: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 16:54ANANick Ritchie: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 2:45ANAHampus Lindholm: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 9:25ANANick Ritchie: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:15ANALogan Shaw: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Schenn – Konecny9:30
xG 0.94–0.17 (85%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- VandeVelde – Bellemare – Lyubimov5:26
xG 0.59–0.04 (93%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Weise – Read – Couturier11:50
xG 0.59–0.47 (56%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Giroux – Voracek – Raffl11:34
xG 0.55–0.49 (53%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestManning – Gostisbehere11:13
xG 1.48–0.67 (69%)attempts 20–11goals 1–1
- Del Zotto – Gudas14:23
xG 0.74–0.29 (72%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- MacDonald – Provorov12:48
xG 0.60–0.40 (60%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg10:23
xG 0.63–0.42 (60%)attempts 12–11goals 2–0
- Boll – Cramarossa – Shaw2:11
xG 0.15–0.01 (94%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Vermette – Perry – Cramarossa3:15
xG 0.06–0.19 (23%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Rakell – Kase8:12
xG 0.32–0.55 (36%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm11:51
xG 0.55–0.20 (73%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Vatanen – Lindholm3:10
xG 0.07–0.07 (50%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Vatanen – Fowler10:03
xG 0.24–0.53 (31%)attempts 6–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).