Mon, Jan 2, 2017·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Colorado Avalanche 2, Vancouver Canucks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 06 | 19 | 111 | 226 |
| VAN | 06 | 213 | 15 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:48VANBo HorvatAssists: Ben Hutton, Anton Rodin · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 6:53COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Nikita Zadorov · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 18:15VANSven BaertschiAssists: Brandon Sutter, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 11:42COLTyson BarrieAssists: Francois Beauchemin, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- P3 16:23VANSven BaertschiPPGWGAssists: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.40 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 19:48COLJohn Mitchell: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:19VANMichael Chaput: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:15VANAlexander Edler: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 12:30COLFedor Tyutin: Interference2 min
- P2 16:11COLCody Goloubef: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:26VANBrandon Sutter: Interference2 min
- P3 15:17COLCody Goloubef: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Soderberg – Grigorenko7:43
xG 0.40–0.23 (64%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Mitchell – McLeod – Colborne4:20
xG 0.12–0.06 (66%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Iginla – Duchene – Rantanen8:22
xG 0.22–0.17 (56%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Bourque – Landeskog – MacKinnon7:30
xG 0.03–0.41 (6%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWiercioch – Zadorov7:14
xG 0.46–0.13 (78%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Barrie – Zadorov4:43
xG 0.18–0.12 (61%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Barrie4:00
xG 0.08–0.05 (62%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Sutter – Granlund9:01
xG 0.43–0.23 (65%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Skille – Chaput – Gaunce6:22
xG 0.27–0.07 (79%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Rodin – Baertschi – Horvat9:22
xG 0.22–0.22 (50%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Megna9:13
xG 0.22–0.46 (32%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Tryamkin11:57
xG 0.48–0.08 (86%)attempts 16–4goals 1–0
- Sbisa – Tanev16:15
xG 0.34–0.23 (60%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Edler – Stecher11:37
xG 0.41–0.50 (45%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).