Tue, Jan 3, 2017·PNC Arena, Raleigh
New Jersey Devils 3, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 06 | 13 | 29 | 318 |
| CAR | 08 | 012 | 110 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 14:56NJDAdam HenriqueAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Damon Severson · Snap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P3 11:30NJDMichael CammalleriGWGAssists: Adam Henrique, Kyle Palmieri · Slap, 0.05 xG2–0
- P3 12:24CARSebastian AhoAssists: Ron Hainsey, Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
- P3 18:00NJDKyle PalmieriENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.70 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:08NJDBeau Bennett: Holding2 min
- P1 12:18NJDDamon Severson: Holding2 min
- P1 14:38CARLee Stempniak: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 11:08CARVictor Rask: Holding2 min
- P2 16:12NJDJon Merrill: Interference2 min
- P3 13:11NJDTaylor Hall: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Parenteau – Hall – Zacha9:07
xG 0.21–0.18 (54%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Smith-Pelly – Bennett – Wood5:00
xG 0.08–0.11 (42%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Henrique – Palmieri8:03
xG 0.33–0.50 (40%)attempts 6–9goals 2–0
- Zajac – Kalinin – Lappin6:48
xG 0.00–0.47 (0%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Santini6:49
xG 0.20–0.07 (73%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Greene – Lovejoy4:31
xG 0.12–0.06 (68%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Merrill6:12
xG 0.16–0.09 (63%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStalberg – McGinn – Ryan3:04
xG 0.45–0.05 (90%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Teravainen – Aho4:41
xG 0.35–0.16 (69%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Staal – Nordstrom – McGinn5:23
xG 0.15–0.02 (90%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Skinner – Rask – Ryan7:25
xG 0.14–0.05 (75%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Murphy11:31
xG 0.72–0.19 (79%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Slavin – Pesce14:04
xG 0.48–0.15 (76%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Hainsey – Pesce2:47
xG 0.16–0.01 (94%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).