Tue, Jan 3, 2017·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Edmonton Oilers 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 04 | 18 | 010 | 122 |
| CBJ | 112 | 113 | 110 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:32CBJCam AtkinsonPPAssists: Zach Werenski, Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 5:39EDMOscar KlefbomAssists: Patrick Maroon, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 10:43CBJWilliam KarlssonPPGWGAssists: Brandon Saad, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 2:45CBJNick FolignoUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 11:20EDMJesse Puljujarvi: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 0:24CBJCam Atkinson: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:48CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:48EDMPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 8:53EDMBrandon Davidson: Holding2 min
- P2 13:44CBJZach Werenski: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 14:41EDMConnor McDavid: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:06EDMMatt Benning: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:12CBJSeth Jones: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPouliot – Maroon – McDavid2:47
xG 0.69–0.14 (83%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Eberle – Draisaitl – Caggiula3:38
xG 0.36–0.09 (80%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Letestu – Kassian2:19
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Lucic – Kassian – Nugent-Hopkins2:53
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDavidson – Benning10:42
xG 0.42–0.10 (81%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Sekera – Russell14:39
xG 0.62–0.33 (65%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Larsson – Klefbom12:33
xG 0.28–0.40 (42%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Dubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner8:11
xG 0.16–0.16 (50%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Gagner – Sedlak8:29
xG 0.12–0.18 (39%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Foligno – Saad – Wennberg9:42
xG 0.54–0.63 (46%)attempts 14–7goals 1–1
- Calvert – Karlsson – Anderson7:22
xG 0.09–0.34 (21%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Nutivaara12:02
xG 0.19–0.13 (59%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Jones – Werenski11:31
xG 0.28–0.41 (41%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
- Johnson – Savard18:58
xG 0.52–0.96 (35%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).