Tue, Jan 3, 2017·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Montréal Canadiens 2, Nashville Predators 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 011 | 014 | 113 | 15 | 243 |
| NSH | 07 | 17 | 07 | 02 | 123 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 19:06NSHKevin FialaAssists: Ryan Ellis, Roman Josi · Backhand, 0.03 xG0–1
- P3 4:26MTLShea WeberAssists: Alexander Radulov, Torrey Mitchell · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- OT 4:30MTLMax PaciorettyGWGAssists: Alexander Radulov, Nathan Beaulieu · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:02MTLJeff Petry: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:25NSHColin Wilson: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:28MTLPaul Byron: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:08NSHPetter Granberg: Holding2 min
- P2 15:15MTLAlexander Radulov: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:15NSHCalle Jarnkrok: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:13NSHMattias Ekholm: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mitchell won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Mitchell – Byron11:30
xG 0.34–0.01 (96%)attempts 18–3goals 1–0
- Pacioretty – Gallagher – Danault11:34
xG 0.72–0.39 (65%)attempts 23–8goals 0–1
- Plekanec – Flynn – Lehkonen10:14
xG 0.37–0.16 (69%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Terry – McCarron – Carr5:31
xG 0.01–0.30 (4%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Emelin15:46
xG 0.51–0.20 (72%)attempts 22–8goals 1–0
- Barberio – Johnston9:58
xG 0.38–0.29 (57%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Petry – Beaulieu16:38
xG 0.49–0.59 (46%)attempts 19–18goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Smith – Fiala11:20
xG 0.46–0.40 (54%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson9:50
xG 0.07–0.11 (40%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Watson – Sissons7:30
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
- Fisher – Neal – Wilson9:00
xG 0.05–0.39 (11%)attempts 4–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ekholm – Irwin20:10
xG 0.33–0.33 (50%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
- Josi – Ellis17:18
xG 0.53–0.59 (47%)attempts 14–31goals 1–1
- Weber – Granberg8:54
xG 0.30–0.60 (33%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).