Tue, Jan 3, 2017·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Los Angeles Kings 2, San Jose Sharks 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 016 | 08 | 110 | 11 | 235 |
| SJS | 06 | 17 | 013 | 01 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:56SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Kevin Labanc, Paul Martin · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P3 3:03LAKJeff CarterPPAssists: Jake Muzzin, Anze Kopitar · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–1
- OT 0:58LAKTanner PearsonGWGAssists: Jeff Carter · Snap, 0.35 xG2–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:35SJSBrent Burns: Interference2 min
- P1 13:46LAKKyle Clifford: Interference2 min
- P2 13:18SJSBrent Burns: Holding2 min
- P2 17:46LAKMarian Gaborik: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:48SJSJustin Braun: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:06LAKBrayden McNabb: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestLewis – Clifford – Dowd2:52
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Lewis – Clifford5:05
xG 0.09–0.04 (69%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Carter – Setoguchi – Pearson10:31
xG 0.32–0.30 (52%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Brown – Dowd2:49
xG 0.08–0.06 (55%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Forbort20:22
xG 0.63–0.56 (53%)attempts 21–17goals 0–0
- McNabb – Gravel8:58
xG 0.22–0.17 (57%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Martinez16:52
xG 0.38–0.74 (34%)attempts 21–14goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Donskoi – Labanc10:03
xG 0.48–0.23 (67%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Marleau – Ward – Tierney4:31
xG 0.16–0.12 (56%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Boedker – Tierney – Meier5:51
xG 0.12–0.11 (53%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Meier5:29
xG 0.24–0.23 (51%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Burns17:01
xG 0.63–0.36 (64%)attempts 15–18goals 0–0
- Braun – Dillon14:13
xG 0.50–0.47 (52%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Mueller11:23
xG 0.37–0.37 (50%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).