Wed, Jan 4, 2017·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Winnipeg Jets 4, Florida Panthers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 010 | 217 | 212 | 439 |
| FLA | 07 | 115 | 010 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:03WPGShawn MatthiasAssists: Paul Postma, Adam Lowry · Snap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 7:24WPGPatrik LaineGWGAssists: Bryan Little · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 18:18FLAGreg McKeggAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Aaron Ekblad · Snap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 2:46WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Bryan Little · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 12:05WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Jacob Trouba, Patrik Laine · Snap, 0.28 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:25WPGMark Scheifele: Hooking2 min
- P1 0:00FLADerek MacKenzie: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:20FLAAaron Ekblad: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:20WPGBlake Wheeler: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:00WPGJoel Armia: Elbowing2 min
- P3 12:30WPGBen Chiarot: Holding2 min
- P3 18:34WPGDrew Stafford: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestMatthias – Lowry – Armia10:08
xG 0.62–0.10 (87%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Scheifele – Ehlers – Laine12:39
xG 0.71–0.34 (68%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Little – Perreault11:43
xG 0.92–0.64 (59%)attempts 14–16goals 0–1
- Stafford – Copp – Petan6:57
xG 0.21–0.37 (36%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Morrissey17:27
xG 0.96–0.44 (69%)attempts 19–11goals 1–0
- Postma – Chiarot9:47
xG 0.61–0.19 (76%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Enstrom – Trouba16:07
xG 0.83–0.72 (54%)attempts 17–20goals 1–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Trocheck – Marchessault10:46
xG 0.41–0.32 (57%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Jokinen – Smith – Bjugstad7:26
xG 0.45–0.40 (53%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Sgarbossa – Marchessault – Malgin2:26
xG 0.02–0.04 (35%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – McKegg2:33
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Ekblad13:15
xG 0.64–0.34 (65%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Yandle – Demers13:27
xG 0.62–0.33 (65%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Yandle – Ekblad2:00
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).