Wed, Jan 4, 2017·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New York Rangers 5, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 09 | 19 | 410 | 528 |
| PHI | 08 | 012 | 212 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:08NYRKevin HayesAssists: Michael Grabner, Brady Skjei · Snap, 0.21 xG1–0
- P3 5:01NYRChris KreiderAssists: Derek Stepan, Mats Zuccarello · Snap, 0.15 xG2–0
- P3 11:13NYRMichael GrabnerGWGAssists: J.T. Miller, Dan Girardi · Snap, 0.12 xG3–0
- P3 12:32PHIJakub VoracekPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Shayne Gostisbehere · Snap, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 14:15NYRKevin HayesAssists: J.T. Miller · Snap, 0.14 xG4–1
- P3 17:08PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Michael Raffl · Slap, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 17:45NYRMichael GrabnerENUnassisted · Snap, 0.61 xG5–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 10:28PHIShayne Gostisbehere: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:00NYRRyan McDonagh: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:22NYRAdam Clendening: Holding2 min
- P3 11:45NYRDerek Stepan: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 0:00PHIBrayden Schenn: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Kreider – Zuccarello11:37
xG 0.50–0.13 (79%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- Pirri – Hrivik – Jensen8:02
xG 0.28–0.12 (70%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Grabner – Hayes – Miller11:26
xG 0.41–0.35 (54%)attempts 5–14goals 2–0
- Lindberg – Fast – Vesey12:07
xG 0.22–0.71 (23%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Skjei17:33
xG 0.87–0.45 (66%)attempts 13–15goals 2–0
- Klein – Clendening11:29
xG 0.24–0.06 (80%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Girardi – Holden17:25
xG 0.73–0.79 (48%)attempts 24–14goals 1–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGordon – VandeVelde – Bellemare9:01
xG 0.44–0.34 (57%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Giroux – Voracek – Raffl12:15
xG 0.44–0.37 (55%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- Simmonds – Schenn – Konecny8:44
xG 0.28–0.33 (46%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Weise – Read – Couturier11:41
xG 0.08–0.33 (20%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManning – Gostisbehere13:02
xG 0.85–0.57 (60%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Del Zotto – Gudas17:45
xG 0.37–0.58 (39%)attempts 13–16goals 1–2
- MacDonald – Provorov16:24
xG 0.15–0.68 (18%)attempts 13–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).