Wed, Jan 4, 2017·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Montréal Canadiens 4, Dallas Stars 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 114 | 07 | 211 | 11 | 433 |
| DAL | 115 | 116 | 111 | 00 | 342 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:38MTLNathan BeaulieuAssists: Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 14:44DALTyler SeguinAssists: Stephen Johns, Patrick Sharp · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 12:29DALJohn KlingbergPPAssists: Cody Eakin, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 2:58MTLAlexander RadulovPPAssists: Nathan Beaulieu, Shea Weber · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 4:13MTLMax PaciorettyPPAssists: Nathan Beaulieu, Shea Weber · Snap, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 17:13DALEsa LindellAssists: John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- OT 0:19MTLMax PaciorettyGWGAssists: Jeff Petry, Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.24 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 19:13DALPatrick Sharp: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:13MTLTorrey Mitchell: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:58DALJason Spezza: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:16MTLBrendan Gallagher: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:42MTLDaniel Carr: Bench2 min
- P3 1:54DALCurtis McKenzie: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 3:28DALStephen Johns: Delaying game2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestFarnham – Flynn – McCarron2:42
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Gallagher – Danault9:20
xG 0.77–0.64 (54%)attempts 20–11goals 1–0
- Radulov – Mitchell – Byron4:21
xG 0.06–0.06 (49%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Radulov – Pacioretty – Danault3:19
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Petry – Beaulieu18:49
xG 0.59–0.77 (43%)attempts 18–26goals 1–1
- Weber – Emelin19:56
xG 1.12–1.39 (45%)attempts 20–30goals 0–1
- Barberio – Johnston11:34
xG 0.27–0.94 (22%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestEaves – Roussel – Eakin12:56
xG 0.94–0.39 (71%)attempts 21–14goals 0–0
- McKenzie – Ritchie – Faksa7:36
xG 0.77–0.42 (65%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Spezza – Sharp – Seguin13:39
xG 0.76–0.75 (50%)attempts 17–9goals 2–0
- Hudler – Korpikoski – Shore6:07
xG 0.08–0.12 (42%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Benn12:15
xG 1.53–0.39 (80%)attempts 26–12goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Johns15:24
xG 0.80–0.53 (60%)attempts 17–16goals 1–1
- Oduya – Johns2:24
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).