Thu, Jan 5, 2017·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Nashville Predators 6, Tampa Bay Lightning 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 14 | 37 | 28 | 619 |
| TBL | 05 | 111 | 012 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:25NSHMike FisherPPAssists: Ryan Johansen, Mattias Ekholm · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 3:56NSHFilip ForsbergGWGAssists: Kevin Fiala, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–0
- P2 6:12TBLTyler JohnsonPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 13:21NSHColton SissonsAssists: Mike Fisher · Snap, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 14:04NSHRyan EllisAssists: Colin Wilson, Viktor Arvidsson · Wrist, 0.00 xG4–1
- P3 14:02NSHColton SissonsENAssists: Calle Jarnkrok · Wrist, 0.71 xG5–1
- P3 17:00NSHColton SissonsAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, Anthony Bitetto · Wrist, 0.15 xG6–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:37TBLTyler Johnson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 4:16NSHHarry Zolnierczyk: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:32NSHKevin Fiala: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 17:12TBLJT Brown: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:12NSHAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:12TBLJT Brown: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:42NSHMatt Irwin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:49NSHAnthony Bitetto: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:46TBLRyan Callahan: Interference2 min
- P3 12:10TBLJonathan Drouin: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:10NSHMattias Ekholm: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:53NSHAustin Watson: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:53TBLAlex Killorn: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Peca won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Forsberg – Fiala8:56
xG 0.34–0.14 (70%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Wilson – Smith – Zolnierczyk2:52
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Smith – Zolnierczyk5:06
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
- Fisher – Watson – Sissons5:31
xG 0.05–0.21 (19%)attempts 1–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Weber – Bitetto14:00
xG 0.65–0.63 (51%)attempts 11–20goals 1–0
- Josi – Ellis14:43
xG 0.34–0.64 (35%)attempts 10–16goals 2–0
- Ekholm – Irwin14:35
xG 0.14–0.44 (23%)attempts 4–16goals 1–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Namestnikov – Drouin7:53
xG 0.32–0.00 (99%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov12:45
xG 0.56–0.28 (66%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Callahan – Brown – Paquette8:00
xG 0.14–0.09 (61%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Killorn – Peca – Erne9:25
xG 0.19–0.15 (55%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Hedman8:35
xG 0.45–0.15 (74%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1
- Garrison – Koekkoek5:19
xG 0.29–0.04 (88%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- Hedman – Nesterov4:44
xG 0.27–0.10 (73%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).