Thu, Jan 5, 2017·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Minnesota Wild 5, San Jose Sharks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 05 | 16 | 415 | 526 |
| SJS | 08 | 215 | 211 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:22SJSJoonas DonskoiAssists: Kevin Labanc, Brenden Dillon · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 11:27SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Brent Burns, Logan Couture · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 18:59MINEric StaalPPAssists: Zach Parise, Charlie Coyle · Snap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 2:08MINZach PariseAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Eric Staal · Slap, 0.42 xG2–2
- P3 3:49SJSJoel WardAssists: Brent Burns, Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.37 xG2–3
- P3 4:21SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Joel Ward, Chris Tierney · Snap, 0.05 xG2–4
- P3 5:06MINEric StaalAssists: Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.36 xG3–4
- P3 8:23MINMikko KoivuAssists: Mikael Granlund, Jason Zucker · Wrist, 0.36 xG4–4
- P3 10:18MINMikko KoivuGWGAssists: Mikael Granlund, Ryan Suter · Slap, 0.02 xG5–4
Penalties (4)
- P2 9:37SJSMelker Karlsson: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:23MINMathew Dumba: Holding2 min
- P2 18:37SJSDylan DeMelo: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 16:40SJSDylan DeMelo: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Haula won the faceoff against Tierney
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Zucker – Granlund13:57
xG 1.47–0.25 (85%)attempts 23–11goals 2–1
- Staal – Parise – Niederreiter5:01
xG 1.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 2–0
- Haula – Coyle – Graovac3:40
xG 0.24–0.05 (83%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Staal – Parise – Schroeder5:27
xG 0.05–0.05 (49%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba15:22
xG 1.40–0.29 (83%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Suter – Scandella2:45
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon18:04
xG 0.87–1.17 (43%)attempts 23–18goals 2–2
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHaley – Wingels – Karlsson10:39
xG 0.92–0.15 (86%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Marleau – Ward – Tierney13:01
xG 1.11–0.64 (63%)attempts 16–12goals 2–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Meier13:59
xG 0.30–0.43 (41%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Couture – Donskoi – Labanc9:22
xG 0.61–1.45 (30%)attempts 9–11goals 1–3
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Mueller12:48
xG 0.74–0.37 (67%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Martin – Burns18:25
xG 1.03–1.45 (42%)attempts 18–25goals 2–2
- Braun – Dillon15:00
xG 0.69–1.35 (34%)attempts 12–13goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).