Fri, Jan 6, 2017·Prudential Center, Newark
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, New Jersey Devils 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 49 | 05 | 00 | 414 |
| NJD | 07 | 011 | 214 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:26TORNazem KadriPPAssists: Tyler Bozak, James van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 13:17TORConnor BrownSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P1 14:40TORAuston MatthewsGWGAssists: Zach Hyman, Jake Gardiner · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–0
- P1 15:15TORTyler BozakPPAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.38 xG4–0
- P3 16:36NJDPA ParenteauPPAssists: Adam Henrique, Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–1
- P3 17:31NJDJon MerrillAssists: Miles Wood, Devante Smith-Pelly · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:22TORRoman Polak: Interference2 min
- P1 7:59NJDJon Merrill: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 11:28TORMitch Marner: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:40NJDKyle Quincey: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 16:14TORJake Gardiner: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:44NJDKyle Quincey: Holding2 min
- P3 15:07TORRoman Polak: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Martin – Gauthier – Soshnikov8:12
xG 0.03–0.24 (10%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Komarov – Kadri – Nylander7:16
xG 0.09–0.33 (22%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner10:38
xG 0.02–0.28 (6%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
- Hyman – Brown – Matthews10:30
xG 0.28–0.91 (24%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Polak – Hunwick13:28
xG 0.03–0.27 (11%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Carrick12:40
xG 0.31–0.92 (25%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Rielly – Zaitsev17:43
xG 0.10–0.79 (11%)attempts 9–18goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Hall – Zacha8:33
xG 0.47–0.08 (85%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Henrique – Palmieri10:37
xG 0.20–0.08 (71%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Smith-Pelly – Bennett – Wood5:20
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Zajac – Kalinin – Lappin6:31
xG 0.14–0.21 (40%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Severson5:10
xG 0.81–0.06 (93%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Helgeson – Severson8:17
xG 0.46–0.03 (95%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Merrill – Santini8:32
xG 0.38–0.13 (75%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).