Fri, Jan 6, 2017·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Calgary Flames 2, Vancouver Canucks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 111 | 012 | 123 | 246 |
| VAN | 26 | 14 | 13 | 413 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:18CGYMichael FrolikAssists: Mikael Backlund, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 10:49VANMichael ChaputAssists: Jack Skille · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 13:07VANLoui ErikssonAssists: Markus Granlund, Alexander Edler · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 19:38VANMarkus GranlundPPGWGAssists: Bo Horvat, Jayson Megna · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 3:18VANMarkus GranlundAssists: Nikita Tryamkin · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–4
- P3 18:17CGYMichael FrolikPPAssists: Mikael Backlund, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:39CGYSam Bennett: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:08VANNikita Tryamkin: Holding2 min
- P2 18:15CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 7:19VANHenrik Sedin: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:40VANAlexander Edler: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:10VANMichael Chaput: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 19:16CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestChiasson – Gaudreau – Monahan11:30
xG 0.59–0.19 (76%)attempts 20–3goals 0–2
- Stajan – Bouma – Hamilton8:17
xG 0.25–0.13 (66%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk10:50
xG 0.33–0.21 (61%)attempts 15–3goals 1–0
- Versteeg – Ferland – Bennett7:29
xG 0.11–0.19 (36%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Brodie17:54
xG 0.78–0.14 (85%)attempts 26–3goals 1–0
- Brodie – Hamilton2:34
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Giordano – Hamilton14:04
xG 0.38–0.29 (56%)attempts 17–7goals 0–2
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSkille – Chaput – Gaunce8:33
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Rodin – Baertschi – Horvat8:31
xG 0.23–0.09 (73%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Sutter – Granlund11:02
xG 0.26–0.35 (42%)attempts 3–16goals 2–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Megna12:22
xG 0.21–0.78 (21%)attempts 5–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Tryamkin8:18
xG 0.29–0.07 (81%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Sbisa – Stecher4:31
xG 0.11–0.10 (53%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Sbisa – Tryamkin6:29
xG 0.11–0.20 (35%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).