Sat, Jan 7, 2017·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 17 | 19 | 010 | 226 |
| PHI | 014 | 416 | 014 | 444 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:34TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Nikita Nesterov · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 1:11PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Jakub Voracek, Andrew MacDonald · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 8:42PHISean CouturierAssists: Ivan Provorov, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–2
- P2 9:51PHIMichael RafflGWGAssists: Claude Giroux, Nick Schultz · Slap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 16:44TBLAlex KillornAssists: Nikita Nesterov, Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–3
- P2 17:41PHIRadko GudasAssists: Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:54TBLVladislav Namestnikov: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:42PHIChris VandeVelde: Holding2 min
- P2 18:00TBLCedric Paquette: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:00PHIShayne Gostisbehere: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:53PHIMatt Read: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:35TBLLuke Witkowski: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Paquette – Erne6:06
xG 0.43–0.13 (77%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Namestnikov – Drouin12:18
xG 0.32–0.26 (54%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Johnson – Peca – Palat9:53
xG 0.11–0.80 (12%)attempts 9–13goals 0–2
- Filppula – Callahan – Killorn11:34
xG 0.20–0.98 (17%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGarrison – Witkowski10:52
xG 0.46–0.23 (66%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Stralman – Hedman3:00
xG 0.02–0.04 (34%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Hedman – Sustr10:32
xG 0.18–0.64 (22%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Weise – Schenn9:57
xG 1.29–0.21 (86%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Voracek – Couturier – Konecny9:35
xG 0.92–0.29 (76%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
- Giroux – Read – Raffl12:22
xG 0.34–0.45 (43%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Gordon – VandeVelde – Bellemare5:13
xG 0.03–0.19 (14%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Gudas14:27
xG 0.75–0.16 (83%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- MacDonald – Provorov14:14
xG 0.81–0.58 (58%)attempts 16–17goals 2–1
- Schultz – Gudas2:43
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).