Sat, Jan 7, 2017·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Minnesota Wild 3, Los Angeles Kings 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 26 | 010 | 16 | 02 | 324 |
| LAK | 09 | 216 | 19 | 12 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:12MINMikko KoivuUnassisted · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 7:27MINCharlie CoyleAssists: Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 7:39LAKJeff CarterAssists: Jake Muzzin · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 11:13LAKMarian GaborikAssists: Jeff Carter, Drew Doughty · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 0:54LAKJake MuzzinPPAssists: Drew Doughty, Jeff Carter · Slap, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 19:17MINZach ParisePPAssists: Eric Staal, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–3
- OT 3:32LAKTanner PearsonGWGAssists: Alec Martinez, Anze Kopitar · Tip-in, 0.19 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P2 17:17MINEric Staal: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:07MINJared Spurgeon: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:23MINChris Stewart: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 8:01LAKNic Dowd: Interference2 min
- P3 11:24LAKNicholas Shore: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:43LAKDrew Doughty: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Carter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Parise – Coyle3:34
xG 0.21–0.08 (73%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Pominville – Haula – Niederreiter2:53
xG 0.10–0.01 (90%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Pominville – Haula – Coyle7:49
xG 0.16–0.19 (46%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Staal – Parise – Stewart2:19
xG 0.07–0.31 (19%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Scandella – Dumba14:54
xG 0.34–0.67 (34%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Suter – Spurgeon18:46
xG 0.31–0.90 (26%)attempts 8–22goals 0–2
- Brodin – Folin12:06
xG 0.08–0.81 (9%)attempts 3–15goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestSetoguchi – Clifford – Dowd6:05
xG 0.55–0.08 (87%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- King – Nolan – Shore11:56
xG 0.49–0.25 (66%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Kopitar – Lewis11:26
xG 0.62–0.48 (56%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Brown – Clifford – Dowd3:25
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – McNabb10:08
xG 0.72–0.24 (75%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Doughty – Forbort17:58
xG 0.80–0.51 (61%)attempts 22–7goals 1–1
- Muzzin – Martinez17:41
xG 0.62–0.43 (59%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).