Sat, Jan 7, 2017·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Washington Capitals 1, Ottawa Senators 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 15 | 08 | 07 | 120 |
| OTT | 010 | 011 | 09 | 030 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:38WSHT.J. OshieGWGAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Nate Schmidt · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
Penalties (5)
- P1 13:52WSHJay Beagle: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:01WSHJustin Williams: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 14:05OTTMike Hoffman: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:02OTTChris Wideman: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:44WSHKarl Alzner: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Oshie – Backstrom6:45
xG 0.23–0.05 (83%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Williams – Johansson – Kuznetsov12:42
xG 0.48–0.47 (51%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Connolly3:22
xG 0.03–0.17 (15%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Eller – Connolly – Burakovsky4:15
xG 0.06–0.23 (21%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Orpik – Schmidt10:56
xG 0.26–0.26 (50%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Orlov17:53
xG 0.56–0.87 (39%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
- Alzner – Carlson12:00
xG 0.16–0.54 (23%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Hoffman – Stone11:10
xG 0.64–0.15 (81%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Kelly – Pyatt – Pageau2:26
xG 0.03–0.06 (30%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Turris – Dzingel – Pageau8:12
xG 0.32–0.37 (46%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Kelly – Pyatt – Smith6:43
xG 0.12–0.17 (41%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Wideman7:09
xG 0.50–0.21 (70%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Claesson4:09
xG 0.22–0.04 (84%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Methot – Karlsson14:14
xG 0.49–0.34 (59%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).