Sat, Jan 7, 2017·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Boston Bruins 4, Florida Panthers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 113 | 212 | 112 | 437 |
| FLA | 011 | 08 | 06 | 025 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:48BOSBrad MarchandSHGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 4:13BOSDavid BackesAssists: David Krejci, Zdeno Chara · Deflected, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 9:40BOSBrad MarchandPPAssists: Torey Krug, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.33 xG3–0
- P3 4:59BOSRiley NashAssists: Kevan Miller · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–0
Penalties (11)
- P1 12:12BOSJimmy Hayes: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:28BOSRiley Nash: Boarding2 min
- P1 14:45FLAJakub Kindl: Interference2 min
- P1 18:06FLAMichael Sgarbossa: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:21FLAPaul Thompson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 13:34BOSBrandon Carlo: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:15FLAMike Matheson: Interference2 min
- P3 13:01BOSDominic Moore: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:01FLAJakub Kindl: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:26FLAJonathan Marchessault: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:38FLAJonathan Marchessault: Abuse of officials2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKenzie won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak10:56
xG 0.45–0.18 (71%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Backes – Krejci – Spooner9:17
xG 0.35–0.23 (60%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Moore – Nash – Schaller9:57
xG 0.34–0.24 (59%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Hayes – Vatrano – Czarnik8:16
xG 0.10–0.12 (44%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcQuaid – Krug12:02
xG 0.43–0.20 (69%)attempts 17–15goals 0–0
- Miller – Miller7:15
xG 0.24–0.05 (82%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Chara – Carlo10:25
xG 0.57–0.39 (60%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Smith – McCann7:12
xG 0.27–0.12 (70%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Jagr – Trocheck – Marchessault7:59
xG 0.19–0.18 (51%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Jagr – Jokinen – McCann2:38
xG 0.07–0.08 (49%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Sceviour – Sgarbossa – Malgin2:32
xG 0.01–0.13 (9%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Matheson – Ekblad14:10
xG 0.42–0.41 (51%)attempts 22–17goals 0–0
- Yandle – Demers10:40
xG 0.27–0.48 (36%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Kindl – Pysyk11:50
xG 0.07–0.34 (17%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).