Sat, Jan 7, 2017·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Dallas Stars 3, St. Louis Blues 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 17 | 210 | 011 | 328 |
| STL | 213 | 14 | 15 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:20DALLauri KorpikoskiAssists: Jordie Benn · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 9:27STLPaul StastnyAssists: Brad Hunt, Carter Hutton · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 16:43STLVladimir TarasenkoPPAssists: Paul Stastny, Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 0:35DALPatrick EavesPPAssists: Jason Spezza, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–2
- P2 7:51STLPaul StastnyPPAssists: Alexander Steen, Kevin Shattenkirk · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–3
- P2 18:35DALJohn KlingbergAssists: Lauri Korpikoski, Radek Faksa · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–3
- P3 18:06STLPatrik BerglundGWGAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Kyle Brodziak · Tip-in, 0.04 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 16:10DALCody Eakin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:17STLKevin Shattenkirk: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:10STLPatrik Berglund: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:44DALJohnny Oduya: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:49DALJohn Klingberg: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 11:51STLScottie Upshall: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:53STLRyan Reaves: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:53DALPatrick Eaves: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:05STLJaden Schwartz: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestKorpikoski – Cracknell – Ritchie5:43
xG 0.20–0.12 (62%)attempts 3–8goals 1–0
- Spezza – Hudler – Seguin7:32
xG 0.24–0.22 (52%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Eaves – Roussel – Eakin10:26
xG 0.24–0.31 (43%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Spezza – Korpikoski – Seguin2:49
xG 0.08–0.29 (22%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Oleksiak12:08
xG 0.56–0.22 (71%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Oduya – Benn13:07
xG 0.21–0.48 (31%)attempts 7–13goals 1–1
- Klingberg – Lindell17:42
xG 0.23–0.71 (25%)attempts 8–16goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBerglund – Perron – Schwartz12:10
xG 0.58–0.22 (73%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Lehtera – Tarasenko – Fabbri10:42
xG 0.36–0.20 (64%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves5:53
xG 0.07–0.11 (40%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Steen – Stastny – Yakupov8:45
xG 0.35–0.49 (42%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo14:49
xG 0.55–0.27 (67%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Shattenkirk2:26
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Edmundson2:46
xG 0.08–0.04 (69%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).