Sun, Jan 8, 2017·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 05 | 010 | 111 | 00 | 126 |
| CBJ | 07 | 19 | 07 | 12 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:08CBJDavid SavardAssists: William Karlsson · Snap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P3 19:43PHIBrayden SchennAssists: Ivan Provorov · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–1
- OT 2:33CBJNick FolignoGWGAssists: Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:00CBJSam Gagner: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:59PHIRadko Gudas: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:21PHIMichael Raffl: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:21CBJMatt Calvert: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:51PHITravis Konecny: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Read – Raffl8:13
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Weise – Schenn11:30
xG 0.31–0.14 (69%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – Bellemare – Lyubimov7:11
xG 0.07–0.19 (28%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Raffl4:36
xG 0.20–0.35 (37%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Provorov16:15
xG 0.36–0.21 (64%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Manning – Gostisbehere12:28
xG 0.38–0.24 (61%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Gudas18:46
xG 0.49–0.69 (42%)attempts 18–21goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner11:39
xG 0.46–0.30 (61%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Calvert – Karlsson – Anderson10:30
xG 0.20–0.16 (56%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Hartnell – Gagner – Sedlak7:23
xG 0.12–0.16 (43%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Foligno – Saad – Wennberg12:43
xG 0.07–0.52 (12%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Savard18:58
xG 0.71–0.60 (54%)attempts 19–20goals 1–0
- Murray – Jones2:46
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Jones – Werenski16:09
xG 0.27–0.37 (42%)attempts 14–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).