Sun, Jan 8, 2017·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Edmonton Oilers 3, Ottawa Senators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 09 | 312 | 017 | 338 |
| OTT | 210 | 25 | 13 | 518 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:36OTTZack SmithAssists: Mark Stone, Cody Ceci · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 14:53OTTMike HoffmanPPAssists: Mark Stone, Kyle Turris · Snap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 5:58EDMPatrick MaroonAssists: Anton Lander, Adam Larsson · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 7:01EDMPatrick MaroonAssists: Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 12:59EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Connor McDavid, Andrej Sekera · Backhand, 0.02 xG3–2
- P2 13:33OTTMark StoneAssists: Zack Smith, Derick Brassard · Slap, 0.09 xG3–3
- P2 18:14OTTTom PyattGWGAssists: Cody Ceci, Marc Methot · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 18:38OTTKyle TurrisENAssists: Mike Hoffman, Dion Phaneuf · Wrist, 0.58 xG3–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 13:58EDMJordan Eberle: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:25OTTMark Borowiecki: Holding2 min
- P2 9:23EDMMatt Benning: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:23OTTChris Wideman: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:23OTTChris Wideman: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:23EDMMatt Benning: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Draisaitl – McDavid16:31
xG 1.38–0.23 (86%)attempts 26–5goals 2–0
- Pouliot – Eberle – Caggiula13:44
xG 0.80–0.19 (81%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Lucic – Letestu – Nugent-Hopkins3:55
xG 0.15–0.02 (88%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Letestu – Lander6:00
xG 0.04–0.03 (54%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGryba – Klefbom13:49
xG 1.28–0.24 (84%)attempts 19–8goals 0–1
- Russell – Larsson14:31
xG 0.45–0.13 (78%)attempts 19–6goals 1–0
- Sekera – Benning13:04
xG 0.71–0.53 (57%)attempts 19–11goals 1–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Brassard – Smith – Stone14:25
xG 0.64–0.64 (50%)attempts 13–17goals 2–1
- Neil – Kelly – Lazar6:36
xG 0.01–0.06 (20%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Kelly – Pyatt – Pageau2:31
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Ryan – Turris – Dzingel11:17
xG 0.19–0.38 (34%)attempts 8–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Ceci8:50
xG 0.41–0.22 (65%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Wideman2:07
xG 0.01–0.03 (33%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Wideman5:03
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).